{
  "schema": "morning_brief.v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:33:04Z",
  "regime": {
    "tier": "A",
    "tier_caption": "hot 70%",
    "session_label": "Market Detector · NY",
    "session": "NY",
    "strategy_code": null,
    "strategy_label": "not published",
    "strategy_confidence": null,
    "strategy_rationale": "",
    "orb_affinity": null,
    "pdhr_affinity": null,
    "volatility": "medium",
    "direction": "not forecast",
    "direction_raw": null,
    "direction_score": null,
    "direction_confidence": null,
    "direction_note": "Direction is not forecast: the detector's live call scored 39.4% against 53.7% for always-chop (n=218).",
    "regime": "HOT",
    "score": 69.8,
    "contracts": null,
    "tier_a_score": 0.7569341292892721,
    "tier_b_score": 0.5638784603506914,
    "tier_c_score": 0.7999999999999999,
    "age_hours": 5.02,
    "generated_at": "2026-10-01T12:30:00Z",
    "raw": {},
    "sessions": {
      "LDN": {
        "tier": "A",
        "tier_caption": "hot 69%",
        "session_label": "Market Detector · LDN",
        "session": "LDN",
        "strategy_code": null,
        "strategy_label": "not published",
        "strategy_confidence": null,
        "strategy_rationale": "",
        "orb_affinity": null,
        "pdhr_affinity": null,
        "volatility": "medium",
        "direction": "not forecast",
        "direction_raw": null,
        "direction_score": null,
        "direction_confidence": null,
        "direction_note": "Direction is not forecast: the detector's live call scored 39.4% against 53.7% for always-chop (n=218).",
        "regime": "HOT",
        "score": 69.02000000000001,
        "contracts": null,
        "tier_a_score": 0.7575757575757576,
        "tier_b_score": 0.5638784603506914,
        "tier_c_score": 0.7999999999999999,
        "age_hours": 11.52,
        "generated_at": "2026-10-01T06:00:00Z",
        "raw": {}
      },
      "NY": {
        "tier": "A",
        "tier_caption": "hot 70%",
        "session_label": "Market Detector · NY",
        "session": "NY",
        "strategy_code": null,
        "strategy_label": "not published",
        "strategy_confidence": null,
        "strategy_rationale": "",
        "orb_affinity": null,
        "pdhr_affinity": null,
        "volatility": "medium",
        "direction": "not forecast",
        "direction_raw": null,
        "direction_score": null,
        "direction_confidence": null,
        "direction_note": "Direction is not forecast: the detector's live call scored 39.4% against 53.7% for always-chop (n=218).",
        "regime": "HOT",
        "score": 69.8,
        "contracts": null,
        "tier_a_score": 0.7569341292892721,
        "tier_b_score": 0.5638784603506914,
        "tier_c_score": 0.7999999999999999,
        "age_hours": 5.02,
        "generated_at": "2026-10-01T12:30:00Z",
        "raw": {}
      }
    },
    "calibration": {
      "status": "ok",
      "n": 68,
      "source_file": "calibration_2026-08-11_2026-09-25_NY_LDN.json",
      "basis": "replay (look-ahead until 2026-09-23; quote live)",
      "live": {
        "n": 230,
        "accuracy": 0.391,
        "baseline": 0.526,
        "lift": -0.135,
        "ci_90": [
          0.34,
          0.445
        ],
        "first": "2026-04-20",
        "last": "2026-09-29",
        "generated_at": "2026-09-30T20:16:08+00:00",
        "by_session": {
          "NY": {
            "n": 116,
            "accuracy": 0.371,
            "baseline_majority": 0.534,
            "lift_vs_baseline": -0.164
          },
          "LDN": {
            "n": 114,
            "accuracy": 0.412,
            "baseline_majority": 0.518,
            "lift_vs_baseline": -0.105
          }
        }
      },
      "direction": {
        "accuracy": 0.382,
        "baseline": 0.697,
        "lift": -0.315,
        "ci_90": [
          0.286,
          0.479
        ],
        "caption": "38% ↓ baseline 70% (lift -32pp)",
        "usable": false
      },
      "strategy": {
        "accuracy": 0.412,
        "baseline": 0.333,
        "lift": 0.078,
        "ci_90": [
          0.314,
          0.509
        ],
        "caption": "41% ↑ baseline 33% (lift +8pp)",
        "usable": false
      },
      "simulation": {
        "avg_r": 0.074,
        "n_trades": 68,
        "total_r": 5.0
      },
      "per_regime": {
        "HOT": {
          "n": 1,
          "hits": 0,
          "acc": 0.333,
          "ci_lo": 0.0,
          "ci_hi": 0.721
        },
        "WARM": {
          "n": 13,
          "hits": 4,
          "acc": 0.333,
          "ci_lo": 0.139,
          "ci_hi": 0.527
        },
        "COLD": {
          "n": 44,
          "hits": 18,
          "acc": 0.413,
          "ci_lo": 0.295,
          "ci_hi": 0.531
        },
        "FROZEN": {
          "n": 8,
          "hits": 3,
          "acc": 0.4,
          "ci_lo": 0.157,
          "ci_hi": 0.643
        }
      },
      "per_strategy": {
        "ORB_half": {
          "n": 4,
          "hits": 2,
          "acc": 0.5,
          "ci_lo": 0.189,
          "ci_hi": 0.811
        },
        "PDHR": {
          "n": 10,
          "hits": 3,
          "acc": 0.333,
          "ci_lo": 0.118,
          "ci_hi": 0.548
        },
        "FLAT": {
          "n": 52,
          "hits": 22,
          "acc": 0.426,
          "ci_lo": 0.316,
          "ci_hi": 0.536
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "sections": {
    "system": {
      "count": 6,
      "source": "docker · systemd · VPS ping",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:08Z",
      "lede": "",
      "bullets": [
        {
          "headline": "GitHub 24h: 26 commits across 5 repos",
          "body": "mwm-infra 13, knowledge-viz 5, mwm-lab 4, mwm-trading 3, mwm-creative 1"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Daily Diff Review — 2026-10-01",
          "body": "**Commits reviewed:** 55 | **Average rating:** 9.4/10 | **Low ratings (<5):** 3 | **Missing Scope:** 52"
        },
        {
          "headline": "CIP outcome",
          "body": "{\"timestamp\": \"2026-09-20T04:02:54.626761+00:00\", \"action_name\": \"check_sync\", \"confidence\": 0.78, \"applied\": false, \"dry_run\": false, \"signal_hash\": \"d0a9a58620be\", \"health_score\": 0.654, \"reasoning\": \"Git shows 8 dirty repositories and the oldest commit is o"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Containers: 0/1 healthy",
          "body": "Docker"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Services: 4/4 healthy",
          "body": "mwm-verify-predictions active, mwm-market-detector-ldn active, mwm-market-detector-ny active, mwm-brief-bars-refresh active"
        }
      ]
    },
    "market": {
      "count": 6,
      "source": "Yahoo · Finnhub",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:08Z",
      "lede": "",
      "bullets": [
        {
          "headline": "Nasdaq futures +0.08% vs prev close",
          "body": "last 30722.00 · session range 30529.25–31151.50"
        },
        {
          "headline": "S&P futures -0.03% vs prev close",
          "body": "last 7713.00 · session range 7672.75–7767.75"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Gold futures +0.44% vs prev close",
          "body": "last 4205.30 · session range 4169.40–4222.80"
        },
        {
          "headline": "VIX +2.57% vs prev close",
          "body": "last 16.76 · session range 16.21–17.59"
        },
        {
          "headline": "10Y yield -1.42% vs prev close",
          "body": "last 5.22 · session range 5.22–5.34"
        }
      ]
    },
    "event_calendar": {
      "count": 8,
      "source": "TradingEconomics · US, next 7d · Fed: federalreserve.gov (live)",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:07Z",
      "lede": "",
      "bullets": [],
      "items": [
        {
          "when_utc": "2026-10-01T19:30:00Z",
          "family": "Fed speaker",
          "detail": "Fed Williams Speech",
          "period": "",
          "impact": "MEDIUM",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "forecast": "",
          "previous": "",
          "date_et": "2026-10-01",
          "day_et": "Thu 01 Oct",
          "time_et": "15:30",
          "time_oslo": "21:30"
        },
        {
          "when_utc": "2026-10-01T22:45:00Z",
          "family": "Fed speaker",
          "detail": "Fed Logan Speech",
          "period": "",
          "impact": "MEDIUM",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "forecast": "",
          "previous": "",
          "date_et": "2026-10-01",
          "day_et": "Thu 01 Oct",
          "time_et": "18:45",
          "time_oslo": "00:45"
        },
        {
          "when_utc": "2026-10-02T12:30:00Z",
          "family": "Nonfarm payrolls",
          "detail": "Non Farm Payrolls",
          "period": "SEP",
          "impact": "HIGH",
          "driver": "Jobs data",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "forecast": "90K",
          "previous": "162K",
          "date_et": "2026-10-02",
          "day_et": "Fri 02 Oct",
          "time_et": "08:30",
          "time_oslo": "14:30"
        },
        {
          "when_utc": "2026-10-02T14:00:00Z",
          "family": "Fed speaker",
          "detail": "Fed Logan Speech",
          "period": "",
          "impact": "MEDIUM",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "forecast": "",
          "previous": "",
          "date_et": "2026-10-02",
          "day_et": "Fri 02 Oct",
          "time_et": "10:00",
          "time_oslo": "16:00"
        },
        {
          "when_utc": "2026-10-05T14:00:00Z",
          "family": "ISM",
          "detail": "ISM Services PMI",
          "period": "SEP",
          "impact": "HIGH",
          "driver": "US macro release",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "forecast": "",
          "previous": "55.4",
          "date_et": "2026-10-05",
          "day_et": "Mon 05 Oct",
          "time_et": "10:00",
          "time_oslo": "16:00"
        },
        {
          "when_utc": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z",
          "family": "Fed speaker",
          "detail": "Fed Logan Speech",
          "period": "",
          "impact": "MEDIUM",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "forecast": "",
          "previous": "",
          "date_et": "2026-10-06",
          "day_et": "Tue 06 Oct",
          "time_et": "19:00",
          "time_oslo": "01:00"
        },
        {
          "when_utc": "2026-10-07T18:00:00Z",
          "family": "FOMC minutes",
          "detail": "FOMC Minutes",
          "period": "",
          "impact": "HIGH",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "forecast": "",
          "previous": "",
          "date_et": "2026-10-07",
          "day_et": "Wed 07 Oct",
          "time_et": "14:00",
          "time_oslo": "20:00"
        },
        {
          "when_utc": "2026-10-08T12:30:00Z",
          "family": "Jobless claims",
          "detail": "Initial Jobless Claims",
          "period": "OCT/03",
          "impact": "MEDIUM",
          "driver": "Jobs data",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "forecast": "",
          "previous": "197K",
          "date_et": "2026-10-08",
          "day_et": "Thu 08 Oct",
          "time_et": "08:30",
          "time_oslo": "14:30"
        }
      ],
      "fomc": {
        "meetings_2026": [
          {
            "start": "2026-01-27",
            "end": "2026-01-28"
          },
          {
            "start": "2026-03-17",
            "end": "2026-03-18"
          },
          {
            "start": "2026-04-28",
            "end": "2026-04-29"
          },
          {
            "start": "2026-06-16",
            "end": "2026-06-17"
          },
          {
            "start": "2026-07-28",
            "end": "2026-07-29"
          },
          {
            "start": "2026-09-15",
            "end": "2026-09-16"
          },
          {
            "start": "2026-10-27",
            "end": "2026-10-28"
          },
          {
            "start": "2026-12-08",
            "end": "2026-12-09"
          }
        ],
        "next": {
          "start": "2026-10-27",
          "end": "2026-10-28"
        },
        "source": "federalreserve.gov (live)"
      },
      "horizon_days": 7
    },
    "gold": {
      "count": 4,
      "source": "Yahoo · Finnhub (gold filter)",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:08Z",
      "lede": "Gold and silver futures rise while the dollar strengthens and 10‑year yields fall.",
      "bullets": [
        {
          "headline": "Gold futures up",
          "body": "Gold futures up 0.44% to 4,205.30, trading 4,169.40‑4,222.80.",
          "source_idx": 1
        },
        {
          "headline": "Silver gains",
          "body": "Silver futures up 0.98% to 61.16, range 60.26‑61.75.",
          "source_idx": 2
        },
        {
          "headline": "Dollar index climbs",
          "body": "Dollar index up 0.68% to 102.14, range 101.46‑102.19.",
          "source_idx": 3
        },
        {
          "headline": "10‑year yields drop",
          "body": "10‑year Treasury yield down 1.42% to 5.22%, range 5.22‑5.34.",
          "source_idx": 4
        }
      ]
    },
    "research": {
      "count": 8,
      "source": "swarm · synthesis · arXiv q-fin",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:11Z",
      "lede": "New studies link psychedelic-induced perceptual abnormalities to conditioned hallucinations and explore AI-driven trading models.",
      "bullets": [
        {
          "headline": "PPAs tied to hallucinations",
          "body": "Serotonergic psychedelics cause persisting perceptual abnormalities linked to conditioned hallucinations and sensory deficits (source 1).",
          "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-71819-1",
          "source_idx": 1
        },
        {
          "headline": "Agentic LOB phase shift",
          "body": "Reinforcement‑learning agents in limit order books exhibit macroscopic phase transitions, affecting market impact (arXiv 2609.31260) (source 5).",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31260",
          "source_idx": 5
        },
        {
          "headline": "QuantCode trading model",
          "body": "Specialized language model translates natural‑language strategies into executable algorithmic trading code (arXiv 2609.39420) (source 6).",
          "url": "http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39420v1",
          "source_idx": 6
        },
        {
          "headline": "Bond MDP optimization",
          "body": "Markov decision process optimizes multi‑period bond portfolios with transaction costs, improving yield‑liquidity trade‑off (arXiv 2609.38765) (source 7).",
          "url": "http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.38765v1",
          "source_idx": 7
        },
        {
          "headline": "Strategic narrative signals",
          "body": "Machine‑learning extracts institutional, media, and market voices to reveal positioning and predict price moves (arXiv 2609.38545) (source 8).",
          "url": "http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.38545v1",
          "source_idx": 8
        }
      ]
    },
    "trading_news": {
      "count": 12,
      "source": "Finnhub · Google News (24h, MNQ/MGC drivers)",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:10Z",
      "lede": "Higher Treasury yields and mixed inflation data pressure Fed policy, while gold and equity futures react.",
      "bullets": [
        {
          "headline": "Fed faces rate dilemma",
          "body": "Axios outlines the Fed's long‑term challenge of balancing higher rates with economic stability.",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQMGlRLVl2empNVnFSQlEyZEl5QVNvaWFqZVFNbzI3VTN1UW5iZDZoSnlweWNqbzdEdmh2MnZqTW04NmszM19ueXRPbG9wb1pnWWFNWFRaNllCU082Tm13eHhFNUd3SURrWkZ2blFTalJXOUNkSk9QemNFQnozZnpFd2dSbnVlbGl6?oc=5",
          "source_idx": 1
        },
        {
          "headline": "Yield rise adds debt",
          "body": "Cato Institute warns persistently higher Treasury yields could add trillions to U.S. debt over ten years.",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxObTdWXzNZSnFZckxLYy10cUx4NWxRTFZ2MUIzMW92SkI3dGxDXzJ1QmlnUnRPNnpPRVdkNzRwNkZHZW4yOFF3MkVBOV9aczdzdU9kenVrUFREZ3BCUVRmWWlWMU0tSHVRcVNmd21yNXlQeHJmMzI0RlVHdWUwQnRJSDVjM0ViMTlrZU45N0JjcFYwTEdBeERXeVhGR1Y3aHVaVkE?oc=5",
          "source_idx": 2
        },
        {
          "headline": "Rate‑hike bets fade",
          "body": "Nikkei Asia reports revised inflation data shifts market expectations to an October Fed pause.",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQemRiOUR0aEZfNnRzU2tpX2lZMl9rMU9XX0JyVk5kRnI3ckg1RDNBd1dkZWFnY19ZRWRmTE1kY0psNk9VcEJoNktpejQ5cUVsX3diaFNiNHhkSDVmMEFpMTJSVGx0Z1JUSGRkd1djVnZQQW1mZWQ3R0x5alFZeXZEMFlrNVFhalNzaFZjdUR4SEtsblVEazJLOTRYUXUtYV90ejZ6enBDVUxoN3ZoWWdlMGE5UQ?oc=5",
          "source_idx": 3
        },
        {
          "headline": "Gold steadies on yields",
          "body": "FXEmpire notes gold price holds as 10‑year Treasury yield stays near 5.34%, ahead of payrolls.",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0AFBVV95cUxOUVMyTDhxWnVlaU02c3FSSUxiYmNGNUYtaTRLNk5EOEhQYlVHNkdodC03VlhXWVB5bGVGMTloa3JoS2E3ZUpqMVVibnZ2YzQ3d1RVeUQ2V2VmNHg4anFRZU12MjhzOUhpV2VwYUQwbTdRbXdJNjl0RHlEajJPSzZYclNYTWw1SUpzYXBLX3VCZlJPVnExc3NfZEF6NXFMZlNiOVBBUVRNRl9mbmRfMjlKUlZzYTZfaVBySURNRzFoblVaLV9vN2FvOElISk9paWZR?oc=5",
          "source_idx": 5
        },
        {
          "headline": "Equity futures rise",
          "body": "Yahoo reports U.S. equity futures climb as traders digest Micron's fiscal Q4 results.",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPQmpzaDFDd0gxb3FKTkZaZUVfMEJZbFptUFhfOVZNMWhpNmJETnAyTUVPdDMyakR2RmdaUENGRnhHcF9wRkMwN3BLRUJGdTY5SnpjTTZ2Vk9XZ1lQckhSUUNzdHhSM3lNWW55b1VwZURva25Pd25iWHV6UjJ0bXAyQ2dER1VhMzZ1Z2dXblMtRENrOC1uS3c?oc=5",
          "source_idx": 7
        }
      ],
      "items": [
        {
          "headline": "The Fed's long-term interest rate problem - Axios",
          "body": "via Axios",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQMGlRLVl2empNVnFSQlEyZEl5QVNvaWFqZVFNbzI3VTN1UW5iZDZoSnlweWNqbzdEdmh2MnZqTW04NmszM19ueXRPbG9wb1pnWWFNWFRaNllCU082Tm13eHhFNUd3SURrWkZ2blFTalJXOUNkSk9QemNFQnozZnpFd2dSbnVlbGl6?oc=5",
          "source": "Axios",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "published": "2026-10-01T16:48:50Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Persistently Higher Treasury Yields Could Add Trillions to the Debt Over 10 Years - Cato Institute",
          "body": "via Cato Institute",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxObTdWXzNZSnFZckxLYy10cUx4NWxRTFZ2MUIzMW92SkI3dGxDXzJ1QmlnUnRPNnpPRVdkNzRwNkZHZW4yOFF3MkVBOV9aczdzdU9kenVrUFREZ3BCUVRmWWlWMU0tSHVRcVNmd21yNXlQeHJmMzI0RlVHdWUwQnRJSDVjM0ViMTlrZU45N0JjcFYwTEdBeERXeVhGR1Y3aHVaVkE?oc=5",
          "source": "Cato Institute",
          "driver": "Dollar / yields",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "published": "2026-10-01T16:42:36Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "US rate hike bets fade as revised inflation data points to October pause - Nikkei Asia",
          "body": "via Nikkei Asia",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQemRiOUR0aEZfNnRzU2tpX2lZMl9rMU9XX0JyVk5kRnI3ckg1RDNBd1dkZWFnY19ZRWRmTE1kY0psNk9VcEJoNktpejQ5cUVsX3diaFNiNHhkSDVmMEFpMTJSVGx0Z1JUSGRkd1djVnZQQW1mZWQ3R0x5alFZeXZEMFlrNVFhalNzaFZjdUR4SEtsblVEazJLOTRYUXUtYV90ejZ6enBDVUxoN3ZoWWdlMGE5UQ?oc=5",
          "source": "Nikkei Asia",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "published": "2026-10-01T15:41:00Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Interest Rates Rise with Inflation and Deficits Under Trump | Steve Rattner on Morning Joe - stevenrattner.com",
          "body": "via stevenrattner.com",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxNM2tDb1hCdC02a3lyeUgwTXNXQS16UUFabVVIU3RPQXVidGc5enh4bUIzSHQ3aUx5N3VUclJGNE1UcEJteGdUbzQwalRVcmtUNUhPZ1gtQXhCR1BMLV9vUHhNLXFHU2c5QXQ4cEtZdTJRMEIxdmp3aHBIYzRwU29yOTZvbVI1WnVUamdITGpkU2hVWnR3Y18tOUxORU16MFFPdFBCRF9SLUxTOVFVUGd1R08zcnBUYkJuajY3S0hXLVU?oc=5",
          "source": "stevenrattner.com",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "published": "2026-10-01T14:58:09Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: 5.34% 10-Year Yield Keeps Bulls on Defense Before Payrolls - FXEmpire",
          "body": "via FXEmpire",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0AFBVV95cUxOUVMyTDhxWnVlaU02c3FSSUxiYmNGNUYtaTRLNk5EOEhQYlVHNkdodC03VlhXWVB5bGVGMTloa3JoS2E3ZUpqMVVibnZ2YzQ3d1RVeUQ2V2VmNHg4anFRZU12MjhzOUhpV2VwYUQwbTdRbXdJNjl0RHlEajJPSzZYclNYTWw1SUpzYXBLX3VCZlJPVnExc3NfZEF6NXFMZlNiOVBBUVRNRl9mbmRfMjlKUlZzYTZfaVBySURNRzFoblVaLV9vN2FvOElISk9paWZR?oc=5",
          "source": "FXEmpire",
          "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
          "instrument": "MGC",
          "published": "2026-10-01T14:46:18Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Gold Price Forecast – Gold Continues to Drift Back and Forth - FXEmpire",
          "body": "via FXEmpire",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxPbXVGa1ZmUHV2X2NDWFpqUFlLM2dwNGJlNURWWU5uZ29WUHYwcS01SE1xZzZQVjlValV5LU1JMGVyZ1BNejNzdmU0OHd1NUlYbUl1bmVVQWdPZjEwbDl4WUkxTFh3Uk16TjdMMHF0UjlSbWVrenRMVUdROVN0bmEtRmdRRUxEZm9zZjhLSV9SSVNhUDVoYVEtakFrU0V1R2xiZmgtaDZQcWtTYVNoSmc?oc=5",
          "source": "FXEmpire",
          "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
          "instrument": "MGC",
          "published": "2026-10-01T14:10:23Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "US Equity Futures Rise Pre-Bell as Traders Assess Micron's Fiscal Q4 Results - finance.yahoo.com",
          "body": "via finance.yahoo.com",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilgFBVV95cUxPQmpzaDFDd0gxb3FKTkZaZUVfMEJZbFptUFhfOVZNMWhpNmJETnAyTUVPdDMyakR2RmdaUENGRnhHcF9wRkMwN3BLRUJGdTY5SnpjTTZ2Vk9XZ1lQckhSUUNzdHhSM3lNWW55b1VwZURva25Pd25iWHV6UjJ0bXAyQ2dER1VhMzZ1Z2dXblMtRENrOC1uS3c?oc=5",
          "source": "finance.yahoo.com",
          "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
          "instrument": "MNQ",
          "published": "2026-10-01T12:09:14Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Gold price will break $5,000/oz in H2 2027, and silver’s run to $120 was driven by more than hype – Morgan Stanley’s Gower - Kitco",
          "body": "via Kitco",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxNeXN3bGRyTEdVLV9HNndxa0hrWXZBejA3dFVwOVExNmV4QzVtUHVvcDJtQThCR0xZTERnMnQ5TVRVOERIVjJXUzZheHdFVXlhWnZ2QzdkcUpRSUs0bldoODctaWFoanJQUWJud2FCZmdSM3J6b1hEd0xBMk9PSXdSaXltdkh1V01kemNTbENnemJMTTQ2bk1faWFDZVdqaUFxZVdBNXF0U1BEQXFOc0llNm5KYy1kMWpyMFE?oc=5",
          "source": "Kitco",
          "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
          "instrument": "MGC",
          "published": "2026-10-01T12:08:54Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "investingLive European session wrap: Dollar firms as Treasury yields threaten fresh 2002 highs - investingLive",
          "body": "via investingLive",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxPNlF2QmdlVHowVFZ4TDJoZ3lsd09KVG94UjJHUjN5cVhBM3lnNnFaeHktSnp5QVZvQnlqUFdaR1ZNM1ZPZ28zeEoweWRvZEFMQURSYjhLTlpNLVV6ak5rb3BCbUViNE91THVRSWZOQXRMWDlLYlJBV0t2R01LTlVnQzR3NG0zZEpBMVhITTZfdUlTNXJLcGZuNjNfTjVBWjFGdDRsRENVbWMtREVJd1kxM2toQ1JGREx5VmliT1RNX2VYWXc?oc=5",
          "source": "investingLive",
          "driver": "Dollar / yields",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "published": "2026-10-01T12:08:51Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Gold gains as cooler US inflation data counters higher Treasury yields - TradingView",
          "body": "via TradingView",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1wFBVV95cUxNNjIwcHFEUF9GcTg2RVlRRWc0WGVxTnVLYjFHbWRIWUg2ajFGWF9IVURpYzBEcnFCa3VDd0pfMWNQa1JKVGthczBVSVBjbDE5ZzBicl9zUEc3c2JTb2Vhbi0zNlR2b2dPeHA4NEhQUHhQYjVaMkRpeDBMS2k5R1l5eWhKUzl3dXZuY2o3MHhIWEtGdlBPV1FFZkJQaWxqa2hYVWVQTWtHXy02UmhHWDc5X3pSTkc2RWZFX2gzQm1XNkZzWFpxVUFBWFJyNjBkSThrbHJXQ0E2dw?oc=5",
          "source": "TradingView",
          "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
          "instrument": "MGC",
          "published": "2026-10-01T11:58:29Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Trump Says Warsh Should Have Voted Against Fed’s Rate Hike - Bloomberg.com",
          "body": "via Bloomberg.com",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQZ3p3eEhTcmJqUy04M3Y5OG93M19zNTF2c09yZ1hGZkI1Y2pvZzZQOFZDODUzNUQ1VDUxVzFvZ2hMWXBZWk1FS3JqWG9MUkU0Y01YVU1mZnRFLV9TcWg5b3pPc2RWVFdRajZyaU4xeGZlalpaZTF6Y3hRcUNuVDZBVHVzVkFmOUJpel9TbVRTQWJpbW5OcklkYnBOWU16YXI3bjZvZWUtcTFhUS0yM1E?oc=5",
          "source": "Bloomberg.com",
          "driver": "Fed / rates",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "published": "2026-10-01T11:55:26Z"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Nasdaq futures surge 200 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens - Invezz",
          "body": "via Invezz",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQVmlrT1BFc05BV3d6VWtibVN1eGNDT2lNZTFIeVBaWHI2ZjVMRlR4N1BvRW1HaEtRdkhTNDZ1OUpLV2ZNMUo1bHc0SHlPdGRRbUIxajNEUW9LcUJyLUJMc2NrUlNhRUcwU3FDalZVTFVTTHlBTmhUQW83bmJBV1FYSTlLb3kxWERaTXd1TVFfMnlqWHFOZkpiMWRVRnM1bWFyZDJ5NmtmV0Z1dV9BTEE?oc=5",
          "source": "Invezz",
          "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
          "instrument": "MNQ",
          "published": "2026-10-01T11:29:27Z"
        }
      ],
      "instrument_counts": {
        "MNQ": 2,
        "MGC": 4,
        "BOTH": 6
      },
      "window_hours": 24
    },
    "consciousness": {
      "count": 7,
      "source": "arXiv · r/consciousness · science synthesis",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:32:03Z",
      "lede": "New arXiv studies challenge brain-to-text claims, map neural computation, and link psychedelics and breathwork to altered consciousness.",
      "bullets": [
        {
          "headline": "Brain-to-Text Reproducibility",
          "body": "Decoding gains vanish when timing shortcuts are removed, showing results replicate without actual brain data.",
          "url": "http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.40359v1",
          "source_idx": 1
        },
        {
          "headline": "Green's Operator Insight",
          "body": "Researchers use the Green's operator to reveal task‑specific computation reuse in recurrent neural networks.",
          "url": "http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.40292v1",
          "source_idx": 2
        },
        {
          "headline": "Anti‑Cardinal Orientation Bias",
          "body": "Hierarchical feature memory attraction explains why recall of stimulus orientation skews away from cardinal axes.",
          "url": "http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.40204v1",
          "source_idx": 3
        },
        {
          "headline": "Ayahuasca‑Inspired EEG Shift",
          "body": "DMT‑plus‑harmine formulation changes transient EEG microstate sequences near psychedelic peak, not just overall diversity.",
          "source_idx": 6
        },
        {
          "headline": "Breathwork Mimics Psychedelics",
          "body": "High ventilation breathwork produces altered states judged phenomenologically similar to LSD, psilocybin, and ayahuasca.",
          "source_idx": 7
        }
      ]
    },
    "tech_ai": {
      "count": 19,
      "source": "HN · Reddit · arXiv",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:32:03Z",
      "lede": "Claude-related projects see surge: Pizza Bot inbox, self‑hosted OS, material discovery agents, and a Claude Code cache leak issue.",
      "bullets": [
        {
          "headline": "Pizza Bot inbox",
          "body": "GitHub repo lets AI agents run background tasks via an inbox interface.",
          "url": "https://github.com/pizza-bot-app/pizza-bot",
          "source_idx": 1
        },
        {
          "headline": "Self‑hosted company OS",
          "body": "OtoDock provides Claude Code and Codex agents organized by department in a self‑hosted OS.",
          "url": "https://github.com/OtoDock/oto-dock",
          "source_idx": 2
        },
        {
          "headline": "AI material discovery",
          "body": "Discovered Materials (YC P26) launches agents that search for new compounds using AI.",
          "url": "https://discoveredmaterials.com/research/",
          "source_idx": 3
        },
        {
          "headline": "Claude Code cache leak",
          "body": "Anthropic reports potential session/cache leakage between workspace instances or consumer accounts, issue #74066.",
          "url": "https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/issues/74066",
          "source_idx": 4
        },
        {
          "headline": "April voice AI",
          "body": "YC S25 startup April offers voice AI to manage email and calendar, 98 points on HN.",
          "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45015230",
          "source_idx": 6
        }
      ]
    },
    "geopolitics": {
      "count": 12,
      "source": "GDELT · Google News",
      "status": "ok",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:59Z",
      "lede": "Russia intensifies air campaign, Ukraine strikes key missile factory, and a school drone strike highlight escalating conflict.",
      "bullets": [
        {
          "headline": "Russian Offensive Assessment",
          "body": "Institute reports ongoing Russian air assaults, targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and air defenses.",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxOSE9kNFdlUk9vUmRwVVVkSlhILXJoRDJZOWlmRkhVNUk0ZHhlQlk0ZEdxdnJfN29NOGgyaWcyRS1TNVAyTVhSMnVhaDBaUE4xWENUX2g5SkV6YklCSXhnSzJWZmEwanQ4clMzRzA4MEhXT3VVTmNJVUgyQXFFU0thdEpDVUQ0MERveEdtSm9saEM5dnBMTmFrTVBwY240NjhuLVo4NjBudHZyTmRPWEE?oc=5",
          "source_idx": 1
        },
        {
          "headline": "Drone Hits Kyiv School",
          "body": "Al Jazeera reports a Russian drone struck a school in Kyiv amid intensified air assault.",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxORFFFOG8xYWlMY1h6QVJSTTROMkRDSjNOQ21UbVZqRDN3MmF5dWxQNy1uZEVHMzN5bWdpUC1PclBtZS1iQjdYbkF5bEVGUW1HQlowUVFyNlhwd0NxZzc1NXhEN0FPQzkwN0lQcGQ1azJQSkJIWFhjcGZDSm5DdWNsVkltZWctTVBZSUwxQUJocnIzanZNYmxYdGZXLUJOOGFXaXB3b0F5TjJFMmcycVlXcGY1MNIBuAFBVV95cUxPNmhDNU42eGNtZ010NzdqZjFCNlFXMWF2b25rR0VFMHdEY1Zpbk9JUjZWc21iTFFTZDVnQjdIdU93LTl0d0E5b21HeC1UZVZkdUVUY2F",
          "source_idx": 2
        },
        {
          "headline": "Ukraine Strikes Missile Factory",
          "body": "Defense News cites private intel: Ukraine hit Russian factory critical for missile production.",
          "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi3wFBVV95cUxPLTROUW9BZFNpb1NrV295dDU5LURRcmdfZl80ZG00VGF1b2NMOUtZWFN5bHFhbHlkUWVpT2dHOUxfWVZoX21wRmUteUloUVdOdTE4TDVmdjdKdFRvTDAxeUhvai1tX29UcUF4bDNpRVNKdTJOVFExRXpIY25qdHFBaXMtZWRUMFQzUEdvZWtPSmhidEpqUTBqLTdjV1ZJMTlYVmdxSzh5YVpMZWhCQVBjdm1TRXBhMklDUjhTQnhsOVlsZ1JpSWotX19SSUhMbjBlc1hxM09PeTlROERlUFc4?oc=5",
          "source_idx": 3
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "holidays": {
    "status": "ok",
    "asof_et": "2026-10-01 13:33 ET",
    "today": {
      "date_et": "2026-10-01",
      "weekday": "Thursday",
      "weekend": false,
      "holiday": null,
      "globex": null,
      "mnq_halt_et": null,
      "mnq_halt_oslo": null,
      "detail": null,
      "closed": false,
      "early_halt": false
    },
    "tomorrow": {
      "date_et": "2026-10-02",
      "weekday": "Friday",
      "weekend": false,
      "holiday": null,
      "globex": null,
      "mnq_halt_et": null,
      "mnq_halt_oslo": null,
      "detail": null,
      "closed": false,
      "early_halt": false
    },
    "next_trading_day": "2026-10-02",
    "next_full_session": "2026-10-02",
    "next_holiday": {
      "date_et": "2026-11-26",
      "name": "Thanksgiving",
      "globex": "early_halt",
      "days_away": 56
    },
    "source": "CME Group + NYSE 2026 holiday calendars; halt times checked 2026-09-06"
  },
  "play": {
    "date_et": "2026-10-01",
    "preview": false,
    "weekend": false,
    "closed_today": null,
    "calendar_ok": true,
    "fomc_today": false,
    "edge_ok": false,
    "gate_events": [],
    "other_events": [
      {
        "family": "Fed speaker",
        "detail": "Fed Williams Speech",
        "time_et": "15:30",
        "time_oslo": "21:30",
        "impact": "MEDIUM"
      },
      {
        "family": "Fed speaker",
        "detail": "Fed Logan Speech",
        "time_et": "18:45",
        "time_oslo": "00:45",
        "impact": "MEDIUM"
      }
    ],
    "rows": [
      {
        "strategy": "Drift VWAP Pullback",
        "instrument": "MNQ",
        "size": "1ct MNQ",
        "session": "US session, VWAP pullback with a fixed 85-point stop",
        "edge": null,
        "verdict": "RUN",
        "why": "US session, VWAP pullback with a fixed 85-point stop. No tier-1 US release scheduled. Also scheduled: Fed speaker 15:30 ET, Fed speaker 18:45 ET."
      },
      {
        "strategy": "Tokyo Drift",
        "instrument": "MGC",
        "size": "1ct MGC",
        "session": "Asia session drift on Micro Gold, flat by session end",
        "edge": null,
        "verdict": "RUN",
        "why": "Asia session drift on Micro Gold, flat by session end. No tier-1 US release scheduled. Also scheduled: Fed speaker 15:30 ET, Fed speaker 18:45 ET."
      }
    ],
    "hidden_rows": [],
    "evidence": "Live book since 2026-09-06: Drift VWAP Pullback v3.6.2 on MNQ and Tokyo Drift v2.2.5 on MGC, one contract each, one 50K account. Calendar effect on either strategy is unmeasured, so tier-1 releases are listed, not gated; FOMC decision days are a house-rule SKIP. Backtest numbers live on the Strategy Desk page. Display only: you flip the switch, not this page."
  },
  "book": {
    "status": "ok",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:33:04Z",
    "window_days": 90,
    "bar": {
      "win_rate_pct": 62.0,
      "profit_factor": 1.4
    },
    "fill_basis": "TradingView List-of-Trades exports, strategy-tester fills, export's own contract size",
    "live": [
      {
        "key": "drift_vwap",
        "name": "Drift VWAP Pullback",
        "version": "v3.6.2",
        "instrument": "MNQ",
        "role": "live",
        "note": "Live since 2026-09-06 with one contract. Take-profit limits traded through on 87-92% of exits when checked against real MNQ one-minute data, so the export's fills are close to honest.",
        "live_size": "1 contract",
        "status": "ok",
        "export_date": "2026-09-27",
        "export_size_contracts": 2,
        "last_90d": {
          "trades": 115,
          "from": "2026-06-29",
          "to": "2026-09-25",
          "calendar_days": 89,
          "trading_days": 54,
          "net_usd": 14044,
          "win_rate_pct": 86.1,
          "profit_factor": 7.37,
          "avg_win_usd": 164,
          "avg_loss_usd": -138,
          "expectancy_usd": 122.1,
          "max_dd_usd": 471,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -336,
          "biggest_win_usd": 412,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-08-18",
            "usd": 1137
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-09-03",
            "usd": -245
          },
          "per_day_usd": 260,
          "trades_per_day": 2.13,
          "clears_bar": true,
          "spark": [
            206,
            301,
            404,
            612,
            821,
            846,
            1115,
            1218,
            1298,
            1563,
            1654,
            1733,
            1743,
            2154,
            2478,
            2682,
            2785,
            2780,
            3020,
            3098,
            2762,
            2893,
            3157,
            3419,
            3229,
            3437,
            3384,
            3714,
            3972,
            4230,
            4151,
            4101,
            4302,
            4383,
            4496,
            4819,
            4490,
            4745,
            4817,
            4851,
            5100,
            5204,
            5452,
            5700,
            5773,
            5839,
            6084,
            6390,
            6587,
            6785,
            6865,
            6958,
            6909,
            6996,
            7198,
            7399,
            7267,
            7474,
            7682,
            7946,
            8037,
            8088,
            8184,
            8391,
            8399,
            8514,
            8589,
            8646,
            8751,
            8868,
            9137,
            9404,
            9671,
            10003,
            10005,
            10084,
            10325,
            10588,
            10849,
            11111,
            11117,
            11066,
            11161,
            11365,
            11569,
            11896,
            11973,
            12049,
            12157,
            11912,
            12116,
            12112,
            12182,
            12204,
            12409,
            12428,
            12633,
            12582,
            12365,
            12162,
            12171,
            12430,
            12519,
            12683,
            12719,
            12918,
            13125,
            13207,
            13312,
            13376,
            13168,
            13441,
            13641,
            13854,
            14044
          ]
        },
        "full": {
          "trades": 236,
          "from": "2026-03-31",
          "to": "2026-09-25",
          "calendar_days": 179,
          "trading_days": 112,
          "net_usd": 20364,
          "win_rate_pct": 79.2,
          "profit_factor": 3.19,
          "avg_win_usd": 159,
          "avg_loss_usd": -190,
          "expectancy_usd": 86.3,
          "max_dd_usd": 781,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -405,
          "biggest_win_usd": 412,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "usd": 1209
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-04-23",
            "usd": -561
          },
          "per_day_usd": 182,
          "trades_per_day": 2.11,
          "clears_bar": true,
          "spark": [
            -312,
            -170,
            423,
            -249,
            93,
            168,
            561,
            726,
            499,
            -54,
            74,
            234,
            47,
            504,
            344,
            487,
            1093,
            1728,
            1843,
            1974,
            1731,
            1823,
            1713,
            1749,
            1606,
            1589,
            2346,
            2385,
            2494,
            3392,
            3238,
            3404,
            3633,
            3850,
            3929,
            4043,
            4343,
            4814,
            5044,
            5638,
            6320,
            6723,
            7166,
            7618,
            8053,
            8798,
            9100,
            9082,
            9739,
            9704,
            10550,
            10622,
            11139,
            11137,
            11524,
            12093,
            12710,
            13184,
            13316,
            13587,
            14266,
            14504,
            14834,
            15071,
            15724,
            16325,
            16907,
            17437,
            17685,
            18293,
            18232,
            18502,
            18748,
            18685,
            18750,
            19039,
            19527,
            19488,
            20174,
            20364
          ]
        },
        "verdict": {
          "word": "CLEARS THE BAR",
          "basis": "90d",
          "line": "Win rate 86.1% and PF 7.37 over 115 trades (90d) clear the house bar of 62% and 1.4 together.",
          "comeback": null
        },
        "prose": [
          "Ninety days of Drift VWAP Pullback v3.6.2 gave the desk its best day $1,137 and its worst day only $-245, well inside the $1,000 daily loss limit that governs the account. Win rate ran 86.1%, profit factor 7.37 across 115 trades, net $14,044. Max drawdown on closed-trade equity sat at $471, comfortably under the $2,000 ceiling. The house bar for a sub-year backtest is 62% win rate and 1.4 profit factor together: this strategy clears both by a wide margin.",
          "The full export, six months back to March, tells a steadier but less flattering story. Win rate falls to 79.2%, profit factor to 3.19, expectancy to $86.3 a trade against $122.1 in the last 90 days. Average loss widened too, from $-138 to $-190, and the worst single day in the full history was $-561 in April, more than double the worst day of the recent window. Drawdown across the full export reached $781. The edge has not vanished, but it was rougher before this summer's run and the export sizes trades at 2 contracts against 1 live, and TradingView fills, not broker fills, so treat every dollar figure as directional, not exact.",
          "This is live capital, one contract, so watch three things: any daily loss approaching the $245 recent worst, since the $1,000 limit gives room but not infinite room; a drawdown pushing past the $471 recent mark toward the $781 seen in the full history; and average loss size drifting back toward $-190. Take-profit fills traded through 87-92% of the time on real data, which is the closest this export comes to honesty, and about as close as a broadsheet gets to a compliment."
        ],
        "prose_by": "the strategy desk"
      },
      {
        "key": "tokyo_drift",
        "name": "Tokyo Drift",
        "version": "v2.2.5",
        "instrument": "MGC",
        "role": "live",
        "note": "Live since 2026-09-06 with one contract on Micro Gold. Asia-session drift model; fills confirmed against real orders, so the export's numbers are not a spot-gold proxy.",
        "live_size": "1 contract",
        "status": "ok",
        "export_date": "2026-09-27",
        "export_size_contracts": 1,
        "last_90d": {
          "trades": 68,
          "from": "2026-06-26",
          "to": "2026-09-23",
          "calendar_days": 90,
          "trading_days": 39,
          "net_usd": 6691,
          "win_rate_pct": 85.3,
          "profit_factor": 5.81,
          "avg_win_usd": 139,
          "avg_loss_usd": -139,
          "expectancy_usd": 98.4,
          "max_dd_usd": 213,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -213,
          "biggest_win_usd": 263,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "usd": 549
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-07-15",
            "usd": -186
          },
          "per_day_usd": 172,
          "trades_per_day": 1.74,
          "clears_bar": true,
          "spark": [
            151,
            -37,
            193,
            156,
            306,
            457,
            607,
            758,
            908,
            954,
            1107,
            1259,
            1490,
            1642,
            1668,
            1817,
            1630,
            1860,
            2007,
            2155,
            2304,
            2145,
            2296,
            2447,
            2601,
            2593,
            2593,
            2744,
            2751,
            2563,
            2717,
            2870,
            3024,
            2866,
            3071,
            3258,
            3189,
            3343,
            3499,
            3665,
            3917,
            4079,
            4256,
            4289,
            4460,
            4633,
            4805,
            4592,
            4765,
            4795,
            4855,
            5117,
            4932,
            4947,
            4957,
            5123,
            5283,
            5448,
            5612,
            5618,
            5781,
            5799,
            5960,
            6108,
            6271,
            6286,
            6445,
            6691
          ]
        },
        "full": {
          "trades": 129,
          "from": "2026-03-31",
          "to": "2026-09-23",
          "calendar_days": 177,
          "trading_days": 81,
          "net_usd": 8478,
          "win_rate_pct": 72.9,
          "profit_factor": 2.84,
          "avg_win_usd": 139,
          "avg_loss_usd": -131,
          "expectancy_usd": 65.7,
          "max_dd_usd": 781,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -223,
          "biggest_win_usd": 272,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "usd": 549
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-02",
            "usd": -369
          },
          "per_day_usd": 105,
          "trades_per_day": 1.59,
          "clears_bar": true,
          "spark": [
            9,
            194,
            36,
            112,
            -97,
            -243,
            -292,
            -256,
            194,
            -38,
            -282,
            50,
            399,
            409,
            577,
            833,
            1001,
            1334,
            1668,
            1815,
            1907,
            1907,
            1957,
            1588,
            1405,
            1405,
            1723,
            1879,
            1869,
            1913,
            1788,
            1751,
            1944,
            2244,
            2545,
            2742,
            3047,
            3430,
            3604,
            3647,
            3943,
            3933,
            4235,
            4380,
            4531,
            4351,
            4658,
            4654,
            5045,
            5130,
            5453,
            5867,
            6077,
            6420,
            6379,
            6583,
            6905,
            6735,
            6910,
            7235,
            7406,
            7587,
            7896,
            8073,
            8478
          ]
        },
        "verdict": {
          "word": "CLEARS THE BAR",
          "basis": "90d",
          "line": "Win rate 85.3% and PF 5.81 over 68 trades (90d) clear the house bar of 62% and 1.4 together.",
          "comeback": null
        },
        "prose": [
          "Ninety days of Tokyo Drift v2.2.5 give the reader one comfort above all others: the worst single day cost $186, on July 15th. That is a fifth of the account's $1,000 daily loss ceiling, and it came from 68 trades, one contract each, on Micro Gold. Win rate over that window ran 85.3 percent, profit factor 5.81, both clearing the house bar of 62 and 1.4 with room to spare. Net gain $6,691, expectancy near $98 a trade. These are TradingView strategy-tester fills, though the desk note says they were checked against real live orders, not a spot-gold stand-in.",
          "Pull back to the full export, March 31st through September 23rd, and the shine dims some. Win rate drops to 72.9 percent, profit factor to 2.84, still clear of the bar but nowhere near the 90-day showing. Max drawdown widens from $213 to $781 on closed-trade equity, worst day to $369 on June 2nd. Average win and loss barely move, $139 against $131. The strategy did not change character. The last three months simply ran hotter than the eighteen before them, and one contract on Micro Gold is not the place a trader learns humility the hard way.",
          "This one is live, so watch the drawdown line, not the win rate. A $781 max drawdown already eats most of the account's headroom under the $2,000 cap. If a losing stretch pushes past that figure, or a daily loss starts crowding the $1,000 limit the way June 2nd did, the edge the export claims is no longer showing up in the fills that matter."
        ],
        "prose_by": "the strategy desk"
      }
    ],
    "bench": [
      {
        "key": "crt_sniper",
        "name": "CRT Sniper",
        "version": "v3.2.8 single-leg",
        "instrument": "MNQ",
        "role": "bench",
        "note": "Candle-range-theory sweep model. Not deployed: its worst loss is a range-sized stop (203 points on 2026-07-30), which is the size of stop a 50K account cannot wear twice in a day.",
        "live_size": null,
        "status": "ok",
        "export_date": "2026-09-06",
        "export_size_contracts": 1,
        "last_90d": {
          "trades": 107,
          "from": "2026-06-08",
          "to": "2026-09-03",
          "calendar_days": 88,
          "trading_days": 52,
          "net_usd": 3156,
          "win_rate_pct": 48.6,
          "profit_factor": 1.69,
          "avg_win_usd": 149,
          "avg_loss_usd": -84,
          "expectancy_usd": 29.5,
          "max_dd_usd": 612,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -408,
          "biggest_win_usd": 411,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-23",
            "usd": 581
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-10",
            "usd": -363
          },
          "per_day_usd": 61,
          "trades_per_day": 2.06,
          "clears_bar": false,
          "spark": [
            -39,
            -94,
            -104,
            -115,
            -467,
            -56,
            -25,
            220,
            149,
            304,
            471,
            459,
            566,
            499,
            630,
            829,
            706,
            620,
            922,
            1294,
            1287,
            1125,
            1323,
            1504,
            1557,
            1406,
            1779,
            1683,
            1527,
            1412,
            1618,
            1755,
            1625,
            1402,
            1364,
            1365,
            1366,
            1270,
            1207,
            1166,
            1422,
            1330,
            1391,
            1582,
            1836,
            1811,
            1689,
            1511,
            1508,
            1398,
            1319,
            1495,
            1466,
            1651,
            1577,
            1417,
            1716,
            1309,
            1475,
            1581,
            1582,
            1579,
            1530,
            1480,
            1406,
            1407,
            1305,
            1498,
            1677,
            1678,
            1832,
            1802,
            1979,
            1980,
            1939,
            2029,
            1924,
            2059,
            2005,
            2188,
            2172,
            2258,
            2154,
            2289,
            2226,
            2524,
            2494,
            2558,
            2633,
            3008,
            2968,
            2891,
            3139,
            3126,
            3169,
            3169,
            3170,
            3076,
            3169,
            3230,
            3130,
            3141,
            3128,
            3057,
            3250,
            3221,
            3156
          ]
        },
        "full": {
          "trades": 148,
          "from": "2026-04-30",
          "to": "2026-09-03",
          "calendar_days": 127,
          "trading_days": 73,
          "net_usd": 3505,
          "win_rate_pct": 46.6,
          "profit_factor": 1.54,
          "avg_win_usd": 146,
          "avg_loss_usd": -83,
          "expectancy_usd": 23.7,
          "max_dd_usd": 946,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -408,
          "biggest_win_usd": 680,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-05-19",
            "usd": 642
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-05-18",
            "usd": -482
          },
          "per_day_usd": 48,
          "trades_per_day": 2.03,
          "clears_bar": false,
          "spark": [
            -131,
            116,
            20,
            -41,
            -162,
            -200,
            -281,
            -222,
            -291,
            -347,
            -830,
            -188,
            -95,
            -40,
            109,
            99,
            302,
            268,
            171,
            425,
            349,
            255,
            234,
            293,
            569,
            653,
            808,
            848,
            1178,
            969,
            1643,
            1474,
            1853,
            1755,
            2032,
            1761,
            2104,
            1751,
            1714,
            1619,
            1516,
            1680,
            1931,
            2161,
            1860,
            1748,
            1844,
            2000,
            1766,
            1658,
            1930,
            1928,
            1829,
            1756,
            1847,
            2027,
            2151,
            2329,
            2378,
            2408,
            2537,
            2607,
            2639,
            2873,
            2908,
            3358,
            3240,
            3475,
            3519,
            3426,
            3579,
            3490,
            3406,
            3570,
            3505
          ]
        },
        "verdict": {
          "word": "BELOW THE BAR",
          "basis": "90d",
          "line": "PF 1.69 with win rate 48.6% over 107 trades (90d). Profitable on paper, below the house bar of 62% / 1.4.",
          "comeback": "Not eligible on these numbers. The win rate is the problem, and a filter that raises it would have to be measured on a window this export has not seen."
        },
        "prose": [
          "The 90-day window's loudest fact is a single loss: $-408, the dollar side of a 203-point stop from 2026-07-30. Alone it sits under the $1,000 daily cap, but the desk notes a 50K account cannot wear two such stops in a day. Win rate stands at 48.6%, profit factor 1.69 over 107 trades, net $3,156, expectancy $29.5 per trade. Max drawdown $612, worst day $-363, both inside account limits. Figures come from TradingView's strategy tester at one contract per trade, not broker fills, and that gap matters most where the stop size does.",
          "The full export, 2026-04-30 through 2026-09-03, adds 148 trades over 73 days, and the picture softens, not breaks. Win rate falls to 46.6%, profit factor to 1.54, net climbs to $3,505 only because six extra weeks added trades, not edge. Per-day profit drops from $61 to $48. Drawdown widens to $946, worst day to $-482, both still inside the $2,000 ceiling. The worst trade stays at $-408: the same range-sized stop, in either window.",
          "CRT Sniper v3.2.8 single-leg on MNQ is benched, not buried. The one condition for return is stated plainly in the verdict: a filter that lifts win rate to 62% alongside a profit factor of 1.4, proven on a window this export has not seen. Until that run exists, the strategy stays on paper. Dry comfort: a 203-point stop makes fine bar-room talk and poor daily risk management, especially twice in one day."
        ],
        "prose_by": "the strategy desk"
      },
      {
        "key": "magic_hour",
        "name": "Magic Hour Blueprint",
        "version": "v1.9.1 prop-friendly",
        "instrument": "MNQ",
        "role": "bench",
        "note": "Added to the bench 2026-09-06. Session-window breakout with a hard flatten; take-profits traded through 95% of the time in the fill check. Not deployed.",
        "live_size": null,
        "status": "ok",
        "export_date": "2026-09-06",
        "export_size_contracts": 1,
        "last_90d": {
          "trades": 95,
          "from": "2026-06-08",
          "to": "2026-09-03",
          "calendar_days": 88,
          "trading_days": 58,
          "net_usd": 5333,
          "win_rate_pct": 55.8,
          "profit_factor": 2.52,
          "avg_win_usd": 167,
          "avg_loss_usd": -83,
          "expectancy_usd": 56.1,
          "max_dd_usd": 793,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -226,
          "biggest_win_usd": 604,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-07-30",
            "usd": 604
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-07-13",
            "usd": -308
          },
          "per_day_usd": 92,
          "trades_per_day": 1.64,
          "clears_bar": false,
          "spark": [
            176,
            271,
            260,
            713,
            711,
            910,
            1171,
            1420,
            1594,
            1438,
            1844,
            1923,
            1921,
            2157,
            2277,
            2151,
            2328,
            2486,
            2384,
            2286,
            2059,
            2228,
            2226,
            2267,
            2458,
            2659,
            3169,
            3016,
            3014,
            3220,
            3178,
            3219,
            3151,
            3282,
            3167,
            2952,
            3079,
            2976,
            3106,
            3005,
            2798,
            2795,
            2750,
            2642,
            2532,
            2489,
            2678,
            2731,
            2793,
            2877,
            2725,
            2956,
            3175,
            3196,
            3194,
            3158,
            3067,
            2967,
            2814,
            3419,
            3272,
            3191,
            3238,
            3421,
            3356,
            3243,
            3119,
            3046,
            3038,
            3162,
            3413,
            3740,
            3738,
            3817,
            3919,
            3808,
            3711,
            4031,
            4172,
            4170,
            4317,
            4534,
            4599,
            4695,
            4593,
            4756,
            4790,
            4798,
            4837,
            4904,
            5012,
            5133,
            5220,
            5335,
            5333
          ]
        },
        "full": {
          "trades": 134,
          "from": "2026-05-01",
          "to": "2026-09-03",
          "calendar_days": 125,
          "trading_days": 82,
          "net_usd": 5969,
          "win_rate_pct": 54.5,
          "profit_factor": 2.15,
          "avg_win_usd": 153,
          "avg_loss_usd": -85,
          "expectancy_usd": 44.5,
          "max_dd_usd": 793,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -282,
          "biggest_win_usd": 604,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-07-30",
            "usd": 604
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-07-13",
            "usd": -308
          },
          "per_day_usd": 73,
          "trades_per_day": 1.63,
          "clears_bar": false,
          "spark": [
            331,
            425,
            580,
            699,
            763,
            938,
            967,
            1059,
            656,
            624,
            725,
            823,
            817,
            852,
            761,
            558,
            608,
            780,
            532,
            636,
            907,
            1349,
            1546,
            2056,
            2074,
            2559,
            2793,
            2787,
            3122,
            2922,
            2864,
            2903,
            3295,
            3652,
            3856,
            3855,
            3918,
            3589,
            3613,
            3641,
            3432,
            3278,
            3125,
            3368,
            3513,
            3592,
            3832,
            3794,
            3603,
            4055,
            3827,
            4057,
            3879,
            3682,
            3798,
            4376,
            4453,
            4444,
            4667,
            4806,
            5170,
            5331,
            5392,
            5435,
            5541,
            5770,
            5971,
            5969
          ]
        },
        "verdict": {
          "word": "BELOW THE BAR",
          "basis": "90d",
          "line": "PF 2.52 with win rate 55.8% over 95 trades (90d). Profitable on paper, below the house bar of 62% / 1.4.",
          "comeback": "Not eligible on these numbers. The win rate is the problem, and a filter that raises it would have to be measured on a window this export has not seen."
        },
        "prose": [
          "Ninety days of Magic Hour Blueprint v1.9.1 prop-friendly on MNQ turn on the win rate: 55.8%, the number keeping it off the desk. Ninety-five trades, fifty-eight trading days, profit factor 2.52, net $5,333, $92 a day. Worst day $-308 on 2026-07-13, well inside the $1,000 daily loss limit. Max drawdown $793 on closed-trade equity, a real bite of the $2,000 ceiling. Figures are TradingView strategy-tester fills at one contract, not broker fills.",
          "The full export, 2026-05-01 to 2026-09-03, holds rather than improves: 134 trades, 82 days, win rate down to 54.5%, profit factor down to 2.15, net $5,969, $73 a day. Average win $153, average loss $85, close to the 90-day split. Worst day and max drawdown are unchanged, both dated 2026-07-13. Tail risk has not grown with more data. Win rate has not grown either, still short of 62% in both windows.",
          "This is a BENCH strategy, not deployed. The desk note says take-profits traded through 95% of the time in the fill check, dry-desk shorthand for a strategy that rarely gets to keep its own profits. Whether it returns rests on one fact: win rate must clear 62% while profit factor holds above 1.4, together, on a window this export has not produced. Until a fresh sample clears both, Magic Hour Blueprint v1.9.1 prop-friendly on MNQ stays on the bench."
        ],
        "prose_by": "the strategy desk"
      }
    ],
    "retired": [
      {
        "key": "qcs_preset",
        "name": "QCS-Preset",
        "version": "1-year export",
        "instrument": "MNQ",
        "role": "retired",
        "note": "The former main strategy, four contracts. Its edge watchdog went YELLOW in early September (rolling win rate 70%, three straight losses) and the desk moved on. Numbers here are per the export's four-contract size.",
        "live_size": null,
        "status": "ok",
        "export_date": "2026-08-19",
        "export_size_contracts": 4,
        "last_90d": {
          "trades": 41,
          "from": "2026-05-27",
          "to": "2026-08-17",
          "calendar_days": 83,
          "trading_days": 26,
          "net_usd": 6337,
          "win_rate_pct": 90.2,
          "profit_factor": 3.89,
          "avg_win_usd": 231,
          "avg_loss_usd": -548,
          "expectancy_usd": 154.6,
          "max_dd_usd": 551,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -551,
          "biggest_win_usd": 245,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "usd": 953
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-07-23",
            "usd": -551
          },
          "per_day_usd": 244,
          "trades_per_day": 1.58,
          "clears_bar": true,
          "spark": [
            237,
            480,
            -70,
            167,
            400,
            633,
            869,
            1108,
            1349,
            1586,
            1828,
            2065,
            2304,
            2549,
            2781,
            3018,
            3253,
            3488,
            3724,
            3965,
            3422,
            3661,
            3895,
            4130,
            3579,
            3818,
            4055,
            4291,
            4526,
            4757,
            4996,
            5234,
            5475,
            5710,
            5945,
            6177,
            6410,
            6647,
            6884,
            6334,
            6337
          ]
        },
        "full": {
          "trades": 418,
          "from": "2024-08-22",
          "to": "2026-08-17",
          "calendar_days": 726,
          "trading_days": 257,
          "net_usd": 29210,
          "win_rate_pct": 78.2,
          "profit_factor": 1.62,
          "avg_win_usd": 233,
          "avg_loss_usd": -517,
          "expectancy_usd": 69.9,
          "max_dd_usd": 6019,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -555,
          "biggest_win_usd": 279,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2024-08-22",
            "usd": 955
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2024-11-21",
            "usd": -1092
          },
          "per_day_usd": 114,
          "trades_per_day": 1.63,
          "clears_bar": true,
          "spark": [
            233,
            871,
            1860,
            2502,
            2361,
            2214,
            2854,
            2705,
            3351,
            3990,
            4628,
            6059,
            5445,
            5282,
            5137,
            5779,
            6604,
            5676,
            3189,
            2829,
            1908,
            1745,
            2377,
            3000,
            2826,
            3455,
            4879,
            3950,
            3016,
            3667,
            1678,
            2310,
            1991,
            1297,
            1150,
            2404,
            3829,
            4463,
            4008,
            4639,
            5283,
            6690,
            7344,
            7373,
            8013,
            8656,
            10061,
            11469,
            11094,
            12522,
            12737,
            13377,
            13992,
            15402,
            16041,
            17438,
            18864,
            19541,
            19399,
            19258,
            19878,
            21293,
            21929,
            23352,
            23981,
            25421,
            26838,
            26690,
            28107,
            29519,
            29210
          ]
        },
        "verdict": {
          "word": "CLEARS THE BAR",
          "basis": "90d",
          "line": "Win rate 90.2% and PF 3.89 over 41 trades (90d) clear the house bar of 62% and 1.4 together.",
          "comeback": "Eligible for a return on these numbers; the desk's condition is one contract on a practice account first."
        },
        "prose": [
          "The last 90 days for QCS-Preset flatter the ledger more than the account rules would like. Worst day was $-551, on 2026-07-23, more than half the desk's $1,000 daily loss limit, at the export's four-contract size. Win rate ran 90.2 percent, profit factor 3.89, net $6,337 across 41 trades. Max drawdown, closed-trade equity, sat at $551. Numbers this clean rarely survive a full sample.",
          "They did not survive here. TradingView's List of Trades, fills at four contracts, not broker fills, covers 418 trades over two years to 2026-08-17. Win rate fell to 78.2 percent, profit factor to 1.62, expectancy to $69.9 a trade from $154.6. Max drawdown widened from $551 to $6,019, three times the account's $2,000 ceiling. Worst day, $-1,092 on 2024-11-21, exceeded the $1,000 daily loss limit outright at that contract size. The 90-day window was the strategy's best face, not its default one.",
          "QCS-Preset sits retired since early September, moved off the desk when its edge watchdog turned yellow: rolling win rate 70, three straight losses. The verdict clears the house bar on the 90-day figures alone. Return is possible on paper, but only on the desk's own condition: one contract on a practice account first, given the full export's $1,092 worst day and $6,019 drawdown at four-contract size."
        ],
        "prose_by": "the strategy desk"
      },
      {
        "key": "qc_trend_mgc",
        "name": "QC Trend",
        "version": "MGC export 2026-09-04",
        "instrument": "MGC",
        "role": "retired",
        "note": "The gold trend follower that ran beside QCS-Preset. Replaced on the gold slot by Tokyo Drift. Short export: three months only.",
        "live_size": null,
        "status": "ok",
        "export_date": "2026-09-04",
        "export_size_contracts": 1,
        "last_90d": {
          "trades": 80,
          "from": "2026-06-05",
          "to": "2026-09-02",
          "calendar_days": 90,
          "trading_days": 27,
          "net_usd": 1646,
          "win_rate_pct": 88.8,
          "profit_factor": 2.38,
          "avg_win_usd": 40,
          "avg_loss_usd": -133,
          "expectancy_usd": 20.6,
          "max_dd_usd": 436,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -260,
          "biggest_win_usd": 606,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-07-30",
            "usd": 606
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "usd": -258
          },
          "per_day_usd": 61,
          "trades_per_day": 2.96,
          "clears_bar": true,
          "spark": [
            46,
            83,
            112,
            176,
            207,
            229,
            243,
            260,
            283,
            357,
            452,
            497,
            544,
            284,
            324,
            388,
            419,
            260,
            287,
            198,
            108,
            130,
            152,
            188,
            243,
            275,
            303,
            152,
            166,
            182,
            213,
            249,
            284,
            305,
            320,
            356,
            378,
            398,
            416,
            435,
            457,
            487,
            523,
            612,
            1218,
            1232,
            1251,
            1269,
            1298,
            1316,
            1338,
            1377,
            1404,
            1427,
            1454,
            1478,
            1496,
            1399,
            1274,
            1306,
            1333,
            1372,
            1423,
            1455,
            1500,
            1519,
            1544,
            1582,
            1619,
            1637,
            1682,
            1712,
            1734,
            1752,
            1769,
            1632,
            1674,
            1588,
            1616,
            1646
          ]
        },
        "full": {
          "trades": 80,
          "from": "2026-06-05",
          "to": "2026-09-02",
          "calendar_days": 90,
          "trading_days": 27,
          "net_usd": 1646,
          "win_rate_pct": 88.8,
          "profit_factor": 2.38,
          "avg_win_usd": 40,
          "avg_loss_usd": -133,
          "expectancy_usd": 20.6,
          "max_dd_usd": 436,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -260,
          "biggest_win_usd": 606,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-07-30",
            "usd": 606
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "usd": -258
          },
          "per_day_usd": 61,
          "trades_per_day": 2.96,
          "clears_bar": true,
          "spark": [
            46,
            83,
            112,
            176,
            207,
            229,
            243,
            260,
            283,
            357,
            452,
            497,
            544,
            284,
            324,
            388,
            419,
            260,
            287,
            198,
            108,
            130,
            152,
            188,
            243,
            275,
            303,
            152,
            166,
            182,
            213,
            249,
            284,
            305,
            320,
            356,
            378,
            398,
            416,
            435,
            457,
            487,
            523,
            612,
            1218,
            1232,
            1251,
            1269,
            1298,
            1316,
            1338,
            1377,
            1404,
            1427,
            1454,
            1478,
            1496,
            1399,
            1274,
            1306,
            1333,
            1372,
            1423,
            1455,
            1500,
            1519,
            1544,
            1582,
            1619,
            1637,
            1682,
            1712,
            1734,
            1752,
            1769,
            1632,
            1674,
            1588,
            1616,
            1646
          ]
        },
        "verdict": {
          "word": "CLEARS THE BAR",
          "basis": "90d",
          "line": "Win rate 88.8% and PF 2.38 over 80 trades (90d) clear the house bar of 62% and 1.4 together.",
          "comeback": "Eligible for a return on these numbers; the desk's condition is one contract on a practice account first."
        },
        "prose": [
          "QC Trend MGC's worst day in the last 90 was $258, on 2026-06-26, well under the account's $1,000 daily loss limit. Across 80 trades over 27 trading days the strategy won 88.8% of the time, profit factor 2.38, net $1,646. Average win $40 against average loss $133: frequent small wins, occasional larger losses. Max drawdown $436 on closed-trade equity, comfortably inside the $2,000 ceiling.",
          "The full export is the 90-day window, nothing more: 2026-06-05 to 2026-09-02, 80 trades, 27 trading days, same win rate, same profit factor, same net $1,646. Short history, as the desk note says outright, three months only. No older sample exists to test whether June's pace holds past September. These are TradingView strategy-tester fills at one contract per trade, not broker fills, and three months is thin ground for firm conclusions.",
          "QC Trend MGC ran beside QCS-Preset before Tokyo Drift took the gold slot, not for these figures failing but for a desk swap. On the numbers it clears the house bar of 62% win rate and 1.4 profit factor together, posting 88.8% and 2.38, good enough to make the desk wonder aloud why it was pulled at all. Eligible for a return, then, on the desk's own condition: one contract on a practice account before any funded size returns. Whether a fresh trial repeats three good months, the figures cannot say."
        ],
        "prose_by": "the strategy desk"
      },
      {
        "key": "liqsweep_ifvg",
        "name": "LiqSweep + iFVG",
        "version": "S3",
        "instrument": "MNQ",
        "role": "retired",
        "note": "Liquidity-sweep into inverted fair-value-gap model, two contracts in the export. The research arc closed NULL on 2026-09-03: every variant landed below the bar.",
        "live_size": null,
        "status": "ok",
        "export_date": "2026-09-01",
        "export_size_contracts": 2,
        "last_90d": {
          "trades": 228,
          "from": "2026-06-02",
          "to": "2026-08-31",
          "calendar_days": 90,
          "trading_days": 65,
          "net_usd": -3276,
          "win_rate_pct": 46.1,
          "profit_factor": 0.88,
          "avg_win_usd": 226,
          "avg_loss_usd": -220,
          "expectancy_usd": -14.4,
          "max_dd_usd": 6468,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -646,
          "biggest_win_usd": 908,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "usd": 1034
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-24",
            "usd": -1701
          },
          "per_day_usd": -50,
          "trades_per_day": 3.51,
          "clears_bar": false,
          "spark": [
            510,
            1296,
            881,
            1268,
            1189,
            1419,
            868,
            5,
            -726,
            179,
            1349,
            1353,
            1401,
            555,
            106,
            400,
            231,
            -702,
            -30,
            -1636,
            -1655,
            -491,
            -56,
            337,
            -117,
            -88,
            -189,
            80,
            -859,
            -1090,
            -1398,
            -1327,
            -1014,
            -286,
            357,
            -426,
            -1110,
            -811,
            -1108,
            -832,
            -893,
            -926,
            -961,
            -1905,
            -2109,
            -2489,
            -2777,
            -3203,
            -2741,
            -2404,
            -2277,
            -2668,
            -2877,
            -3450,
            -3485,
            -3010,
            -2999,
            -2738,
            -2471,
            -2809,
            -3141,
            -2974,
            -3279,
            -3710,
            -4259,
            -3789,
            -3718,
            -4251,
            -4409,
            -4120,
            -4365,
            -4699,
            -4772,
            -4556,
            -4211,
            -3442,
            -3276
          ]
        },
        "full": {
          "trades": 229,
          "from": "2026-06-02",
          "to": "2026-08-31",
          "calendar_days": 91,
          "trading_days": 65,
          "net_usd": -3207,
          "win_rate_pct": 46.3,
          "profit_factor": 0.88,
          "avg_win_usd": 225,
          "avg_loss_usd": -220,
          "expectancy_usd": -14.0,
          "max_dd_usd": 6468,
          "biggest_loss_usd": -646,
          "biggest_win_usd": 908,
          "best_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "usd": 1034
          },
          "worst_day": {
            "date": "2026-06-24",
            "usd": -1701
          },
          "per_day_usd": -49,
          "trades_per_day": 3.52,
          "clears_bar": false,
          "spark": [
            69,
            1003,
            1166,
            1024,
            1371,
            1261,
            1466,
            601,
            -223,
            383,
            1278,
            1579,
            1345,
            844,
            96,
            302,
            407,
            -383,
            -502,
            -921,
            -1663,
            -118,
            -422,
            302,
            -146,
            154,
            15,
            219,
            -548,
            -1145,
            -1428,
            -1078,
            -1662,
            -495,
            247,
            -241,
            -849,
            -1049,
            -1134,
            -839,
            -735,
            -913,
            -639,
            -1361,
            -1754,
            -2568,
            -2524,
            -3294,
            -2941,
            -2883,
            -2332,
            -2351,
            -2715,
            -3001,
            -3486,
            -2817,
            -2812,
            -2441,
            -2330,
            -3035,
            -2977,
            -3038,
            -3144,
            -3321,
            -3976,
            -3837,
            -3478,
            -4293,
            -4191,
            -4152,
            -4203,
            -4474,
            -4785,
            -4435,
            -4320,
            -3554,
            -3207
          ]
        },
        "verdict": {
          "word": "LOSING",
          "basis": "90d",
          "line": "Lost money in its own backtest (90d): PF 0.88, win rate 46.1% over 228 trades.",
          "comeback": "Not eligible. The export loses money before slippage."
        },
        "prose": [
          "The last 90 days close the book plainly: on 2026-06-24 this system lost $1,701 in one session, well past the account's $1,000 daily loss limit. Across 228 trades over 65 days, LiqSweep + iFVG S3 on MNQ won 46.1% of the time against a profit factor of 0.88, nowhere near the house bar of 62% win rate and 1.4 profit factor required for a sub-year backtest. Net result: $-3,276, or $-50 per trading day, with a max drawdown of $6,468 in closed-trade equity, more than triple the account's $2,000 maximum drawdown ceiling, a feat achieved for all the wrong reasons.",
          "The full export, one trade longer at 229 across the same 65 days, tells the same story: win rate 46.3%, profit factor 0.88, net $-3,207. The extra trade barely matters. Average win $225 against average loss $-220, expectancy $-14.0 per trade, figures drawn from TradingView strategy-tester fills at two contracts per trade, not broker fills. Worst day and worst trade are unchanged from the 90-day window: the wider sample rescues nothing.",
          "This strategy is RETIRED. The desk's research arc closed NULL on 2026-09-03: every variant landed below the bar. For it to return, the figures would need a profit factor above 1.4 and a win rate above 62% on a fresh sample. Nothing here is close: 0.88 and 46.1% is not a rounding error from the bar, it is a different strategy. File this one under lessons, not watchlist."
        ],
        "prose_by": "the strategy desk"
      }
    ]
  },
  "nq": {
    "status": "ok",
    "carried": null,
    "schema": "weekahead.v1",
    "run_date": "2026-10-01",
    "mode": "day",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-01T05:51:51Z",
    "week_monday": "2026-09-28",
    "week_friday": "2026-10-02",
    "age_hours": 11.7,
    "stale": false,
    "analyst_model": "claude-opus-5-5",
    "analyst_error": null,
    "validation": "CLEAN",
    "outlook": {
      "call": "NARROW",
      "confidence": null,
      "one_line": "MNQ: the week of Mon 2026-09-28 to Fri 2026-10-02 holds GDP, PCE, retail and jobs data, ending with Friday's payrolls report. The range model calls the week NARROW, with a median of 968.2 pts against a 26-week median of 1155.8 pts.",
      "facts": [
        "f-range.mnq.week.events",
        "f-events.macro_next7d",
        "f-range.mnq.call",
        "f-range.mnq.week.p50_pts",
        "f-range.mnq.week.median26w_pts"
      ],
      "expected_range": "≈968 pts median week range (model), 80% of weeks stay under 1,433 pts; events in the week: GDP, NFP, PCE, RETAIL",
      "range_call": {
        "status": "ok",
        "call": "NARROW",
        "volLabel": "NEUTRAL",
        "weekP50": 968.2,
        "median26w": 1155.8,
        "hitRate": 0.679,
        "baseRate": 0.549,
        "n": 346,
        "meaning": "the model's median week range is below the trailing 26-week median: expect a narrower week than usual",
        "facts": [
          "f-range.mnq.call",
          "f-range.mnq.week.p50_pts",
          "f-range.mnq.week.median26w_pts"
        ]
      },
      "range_forecast": {
        "status": "ok",
        "unit": "pts",
        "pointsNote": "NQ100 CFD points ≈ MNQ points",
        "day": {
          "date": "2026-09-30",
          "p50": 381.2,
          "p80": 591.8,
          "p95": 807.6,
          "call": "NARROW",
          "events": "GDP, PCE",
          "usdPerContractP50": 762.4,
          "usdPerContractP80": 1183.6,
          "facts": [
            "f-range.mnq.day.p50_pts",
            "f-range.mnq.day.p80_pts",
            "f-range.mnq.day.events"
          ]
        },
        "week": {
          "monday": "2026-09-28",
          "p50": 968.2,
          "p80": 1433.2,
          "p95": 1982.3,
          "median26w": 1155.8,
          "events": "GDP, NFP, PCE, RETAIL",
          "facts": [
            "f-range.mnq.week.p50_pts",
            "f-range.mnq.week.p80_pts",
            "f-range.mnq.week.events"
          ]
        },
        "model": "HAR+VOL+EVENT (linear), fitted on 2255 days | week: HAR+VOL+EVENT (linear), fitted on 456 weeks; HARV full-span p50 929",
        "backtest": "walk-forward, out of sample: next-day R² +0.35 vs 'tomorrow = today', direction-of-change 70% (n=1,719); next-week R² +0.27, 66% (n=346); p80 envelope covers 82% of days and 81% of weeks (conformal)",
        "inputsOk": {
          "events": true
        }
      },
      "direction_call": {
        "call": null,
        "note": "not forecast"
      },
      "labels": {
        "vol": "NEUTRAL",
        "trend": "WEAK_UPTREND",
        "macro": "GOLDILOCKS",
        "gamma": "positive_gamma",
        "matrix_score": -2,
        "matrix_score_10": -1.428571
      }
    },
    "mgc": {
      "status": "ok",
      "call": "NARROW",
      "confidence": null,
      "one_line": "MGC/gold: the week holds GDP, PCE, retail and Friday's payrolls, with Fed speakers on Thursday and Friday. The model calls the week NARROW, with a median of 140.5 pts against a 26-week median of 234.8 pts. Gold price facts use the GLD ETF as a proxy.",
      "facts": [
        "f-range.mgc.week.events",
        "f-events.macro_next7d",
        "f-range.mgc.call",
        "f-range.mgc.week.p50_pts",
        "f-range.mgc.week.median26w_pts",
        "f-gold.gld.close"
      ],
      "expected_range": "≈140 pts median week range (model), 80% of weeks stay under 224 pts; events in the week: GDP, NFP, PCE, RETAIL (XAUUSD $/oz ≈ MGC pts)",
      "range_call": {
        "status": "ok",
        "call": "NARROW",
        "volLabel": "NEUTRAL",
        "weekP50": 140.5,
        "median26w": 234.8,
        "hitRate": 0.627,
        "baseRate": 0.549,
        "n": 346,
        "meaning": "the model's median week range is below the trailing 26-week median: expect a narrower week than usual",
        "facts": [
          "f-range.mgc.call",
          "f-range.mgc.week.p50_pts",
          "f-range.mgc.week.median26w_pts"
        ]
      },
      "range_forecast": {
        "status": "ok",
        "unit": "pts",
        "pointsNote": "XAUUSD $/oz ≈ MGC points",
        "day": {
          "date": "2026-09-30",
          "p50": 79.2,
          "p80": 119.0,
          "p95": 166.8,
          "call": "NARROW",
          "events": "GDP, PCE",
          "usdPerContractP50": 792.0,
          "usdPerContractP80": 1190.0,
          "facts": [
            "f-range.mgc.day.p50_pts",
            "f-range.mgc.day.p80_pts",
            "f-range.mgc.day.events"
          ]
        },
        "week": {
          "monday": "2026-09-28",
          "p50": 140.5,
          "p80": 223.8,
          "p95": 331.4,
          "median26w": 234.8,
          "events": "GDP, NFP, PCE, RETAIL",
          "facts": [
            "f-range.mgc.week.p50_pts",
            "f-range.mgc.week.p80_pts",
            "f-range.mgc.week.events"
          ]
        },
        "model": "HAR+VOL+EVENT (linear), fitted on 2251 days | week: HAR+VOL+EVENT (linear), fitted on 455 weeks; HARV full-span p50 154",
        "backtest": "walk-forward, out of sample: next-day R² +0.38 vs 'tomorrow = today', direction-of-change 71% (n=1,720); next-week R² +0.26, 70% (n=346); p80 envelope covers 78% of days and 77% of weeks (conformal)",
        "inputsOk": {
          "events": true
        }
      },
      "direction_call": {
        "call": null,
        "note": "not forecast"
      },
      "labels": {
        "vol": "NEUTRAL",
        "trend": "WEAK_DOWNTREND",
        "gvz": 23.74,
        "cot_mm_z": 0.819903
      }
    },
    "strategy_verdicts": [],
    "audit": {
      "ok": true,
      "model": "claude-opus-5-5",
      "verdict": "REVISE",
      "quality_0_10": 7,
      "n_issues": 7,
      "applied": true,
      "summary": "The draft is mostly sound: the week framing is right, the numbers trace to the pack, and it makes no direction call and gives no strategy verdict. The audit fixed four problems: it wrongly said no Nasdaq-100 company reports earnings this week (Micron already did), the MNQ outlook had no positioning, it claimed positive gamma damps moves without support, and a few citations were loose."
    },
    "eyebrow": "MWM AI · NQ analyzer v1 · day run · generated 2026-10-01T05:51:51Z · facts ok 333 / failed 0 · analyst check CLEAN · audit REVISE (claude-opus-5-5)",
    "advisory": "Advisory only: nothing here gates an account or places a trade.",
    "hrefs": {
      "json": "nq/weekahead-latest.json",
      "json_dated": "nq/weekahead-2026-10-01.json",
      "edition": "week-ahead.html",
      "report": "nq/report-latest.html",
      "report_dated": "nq/report-2026-10-01.html"
    }
  },
  "preopen": {
    "status": "ok",
    "schema": "preopen_expansion.v2",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-01T05:50:02+00:00",
    "decision_time_oslo": "08:00",
    "age_hours": 11.7,
    "stale": false,
    "instruments": {
      "MNQ": {
        "status": "ok",
        "session": "2026-09-30",
        "call": "NARROW",
        "orb": "NO CALL",
        "meaning": "55% chance of a wider-than-normal day: not tight enough to call it a narrow day, no signal either way",
        "expected_range_pts": {
          "p50": 381.2,
          "p80": 591.8,
          "p95": 807.6
        },
        "median26d_pts": 400.2,
        "vs_median": 0.953,
        "expansion": "NO CALL",
        "grade": null,
        "recent_year": {
          "year": "2026",
          "expansion_hit": 0.788,
          "expansion_n": 33,
          "contraction_hit": 0.6,
          "contraction_n": 40,
          "note": "2026 so far, at the 1.15x / 0.80x rungs"
        },
        "orb_thresholds": {
          "go": 1.15,
          "nogo": 0.8
        },
        "yesterday_pts": 352.1,
        "events": [
          "GDP",
          "PCE"
        ],
        "contraction_prob": {
          "p_wide": 0.547,
          "rung": 0.35,
          "n_hist": 252,
          "measured_hit": 0.77,
          "measured_n": 174
        }
      },
      "MGC": {
        "status": "ok",
        "session": "2026-09-30",
        "call": "NARROW",
        "orb": null,
        "meaning": "forecast range 0.84x the 26-day median: tighter than normal, leaning",
        "expected_range_pts": {
          "p50": 79.2,
          "p80": 119.0,
          "p95": 166.8
        },
        "median26d_pts": 93.9,
        "vs_median": 0.843,
        "expansion": "CONTRACTION",
        "grade": {
          "verdict": "CONTRACTION",
          "strength": "leaning",
          "hit": 0.672,
          "n": 719,
          "rung": 0.85
        },
        "recent_year": {
          "year": "2026",
          "expansion_hit": 0.788,
          "expansion_n": 33,
          "contraction_hit": 0.6,
          "contraction_n": 40,
          "note": "2026 so far, at the 1.15x / 0.80x rungs"
        },
        "orb_thresholds": {
          "go": 1.15,
          "nogo": 0.8
        },
        "yesterday_pts": 71.8,
        "events": [
          "GDP",
          "PCE"
        ],
        "contraction_prob": null
      }
    },
    "means": "Expected size of today's cash session, against its recent norm.",
    "caveat": "Size of the day, not a direction call and not a profit claim."
  },
  "lens": {
    "status": "ok",
    "schema": "regime_lens.v1",
    "generated_at": "2026-09-28T13:26:43.905780+00:00",
    "decision_time_oslo": "15:25",
    "decision_time_et": "09:25",
    "session": "2026-09-28",
    "read_type": "live_0925",
    "data_source": "session bars",
    "lens_status": "LIVE",
    "grey_reason": null,
    "age_hours": 76.1,
    "stale": true,
    "vol_regime": {
      "status": "ok",
      "call": "WIDE",
      "binary_call": "WIDE",
      "meaning": "today's RTH range lands ABOVE the trailing-20-session median",
      "call_hit_rate": 0.773,
      "p_high_range": 0.732,
      "threshold": 0.531,
      "edge": 0.201,
      "bucket_hit_rate": 0.622,
      "bucket_n": 476,
      "bucket_ci90": [
        0.585,
        0.658
      ],
      "bucket_rank": "3/5",
      "track_record": {
        "hit_rate": 0.652,
        "years": 5
      }
    },
    "dol_draw": {
      "status": "ok",
      "callable": true,
      "call": "PDL",
      "state_0924": "pdl_swept",
      "pdh": 30951.5,
      "pdl": 30684.0,
      "px_0924": 30698.25,
      "dist_pdh_atr": 0.795,
      "dist_pdl_atr": 0.045,
      "acc_inside_5y": 0.776,
      "acc_inside_ci90": [
        0.748,
        0.802
      ],
      "acc_inside_n": 635,
      "acc_uncond": 0.647,
      "p_callable": 0.607,
      "geometry_p": 0.953,
      "meaning": "PDL is touched before PDH during RTH",
      "basis": "From the two distances alone a random walk puts it at 95% today. Over five years the nearer level came first 78% of the time, the same rate a random walk gives, so this is distance geometry, not a read of the market."
    },
    "caveat": "Size of the day and which prior level comes first. Not a direction call."
  },
  "regimes": {
    "MNQ": {
      "tier": "C",
      "tier_caption": "last hour flat / two-way",
      "regime": "last hour flat / two-way",
      "score": 11,
      "direction": null,
      "direction_confidence": null,
      "basis": "the last hour of 5m bars, not a forecast",
      "volatility": "medium",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:07Z",
      "levels": {
        "pdh": 30929.2,
        "pdl": 30512.2,
        "on_high": 31151.5,
        "on_low": 30684.5
      },
      "source": "derived: yahoo NQ=F 5m bars (EMA20 trend + ATR14 vol)",
      "raw": {
        "slope_pct_1h": 0.0933,
        "dist_from_ema_pct": 0.2247,
        "day_change_pct": -0.668,
        "atr_ratio": 1.14,
        "vol_basis": "phase-matched (+/-60m, n=84)",
        "day_conflict": true
      }
    },
    "MGC": {
      "tier": "C",
      "tier_caption": "last hour drifting up",
      "regime": "last hour drifting up",
      "score": 21,
      "direction": null,
      "direction_confidence": null,
      "basis": "the last hour of 5m bars, not a forecast",
      "volatility": "medium",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:31:07Z",
      "levels": {
        "pdh": 4251.4,
        "pdl": 4169.4,
        "on_high": 4222.8,
        "on_low": 4169.4
      },
      "source": "derived: yahoo MGC=F 5m bars (EMA20 trend + ATR14 vol)",
      "raw": {
        "slope_pct_1h": 0.0522,
        "dist_from_ema_pct": 0.1466,
        "day_change_pct": -0.002,
        "atr_ratio": 0.94,
        "vol_basis": "phase-matched (+/-60m, n=84)",
        "day_conflict": false
      }
    }
  },
  "review": {
    "status": "ok",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-01T17:33:05Z",
    "yesterday_date": "2026-09-30",
    "byline": "By the analyst desk",
    "yesterday_text": "Wednesday was a quiet day on both boards. MNQ closed up 0.28% on a range of 393.8 points, 0.98x its median. MGC rose 0.19% on a range of 66.8 points, 0.71x median. The table rules it a session that did not matter. The wire spent the day waiting for PCE inflation data. CNBC had stock futures inching higher as traders weathered the latest rise in Treasury yields. Seeking Alpha had yields taking a breather. Equiti had 30-year yields at multi-year highs. FXEmpire wrote of a support breakdown deepening bearish pressure on gold. MGC closed higher anyway. A strong Asian chip session made a DAX headline. No story here can be tied to the tape, because the tape barely moved.",
    "week_text": "One session of five mattered, and it was Monday. MNQ fell 1.05% on a range of 564.0 points, 1.41x median. MGC fell 3.53% on a range of 175.2 points, 1.87x median. The wire that day ran Trump hinting at more Iran strikes, with Nasdaq futures falling. FXEmpire wrote that high Treasury yields kept gold buyers on the defensive. The stories ran the same day as the move. The facts here do not prove either story caused either move. Thursday, Friday, Tuesday and Wednesday did not matter. Thursday was the loudest miss. Reuters and CNBC both carried the New York Fed's Williams calling another hike reasonable, and Barchart had Nasdaq futures plunging. MNQ closed up 0.01%. On Friday the same jobs and inflation preview ran under three mastheads, a thrift the desk admires, and MNQ moved 0.4%. Tuesday brought an Australian rate hike and Tehran saying it was ready for talks. Neither board cleared its median. The week's tape gave four days of noise and one day of motion, and the wire wrote at the same volume through all five.",
    "yesterday": {
      "date": "2026-09-30",
      "weekday": "Wednesday",
      "mnq": {
        "date": "2026-09-30",
        "weekday": "Wednesday",
        "close": 30698.75,
        "move_pct": 0.28,
        "range_pts": 393.8,
        "range_x_median": 0.98,
        "mattered": false
      },
      "mgc": {
        "date": "2026-09-30",
        "weekday": "Wednesday",
        "close": 4155.6,
        "move_pct": 0.19,
        "range_pts": 66.8,
        "range_x_median": 0.71,
        "mattered": false
      },
      "mattered": false,
      "stories": [
        {
          "headline": "Gold Price Forecast: Support Breakdown Deepens Bearish Pressure - FXEmpire",
          "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
          "instrument": "MGC",
          "source": "FXEmpire"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Gold and Silver Price Forecast: High Yields Limit Rebound Ahead of PCE - FXEmpire",
          "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
          "instrument": "MGC",
          "source": "FXEmpire"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Asia stocks mixed ahead of U.S. PCE inflation; regional data in focus - Investing.com",
          "driver": "Inflation data",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "source": "Investing.com"
        },
        {
          "headline": "DAX-FLASH: Clearly higher ahead of US inflation data, semiconductor stocks strong in Asia - marketscreener.com",
          "driver": "Megacap / AI earnings",
          "instrument": "MNQ",
          "source": "marketscreener.com"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Stock futures inch higher as traders weather latest rise in Treasury yields: Live updates - CNBC",
          "driver": "Dollar / yields",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "source": "CNBC"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Dollar index advances as US 30-year Treasury yields reach multi-year highs - equiti.com",
          "driver": "Dollar / yields",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "source": "equiti.com"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Stock futures rise as Treasury yields take a breather (SPX:) - Seeking Alpha",
          "driver": "Dollar / yields",
          "instrument": "BOTH",
          "source": "Seeking Alpha"
        },
        {
          "headline": "Gold Price Forecast: US August PCE Imminent, Will Gold Prices Rise or Fall Short-Term? - TradingKey",
          "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
          "instrument": "MGC",
          "source": "TradingKey"
        }
      ]
    },
    "week": [
      {
        "date": "2026-09-24",
        "weekday": "Thursday",
        "mnq": {
          "date": "2026-09-24",
          "weekday": "Thursday",
          "close": 30766.75,
          "move_pct": 0.01,
          "range_pts": 457.5,
          "range_x_median": 1.14,
          "mattered": false
        },
        "mgc": {
          "date": "2026-09-24",
          "weekday": "Thursday",
          "close": 4265.1,
          "move_pct": -0.46,
          "range_pts": 59.1,
          "range_x_median": 0.63,
          "mattered": false
        },
        "mattered": false,
        "stories": [
          {
            "headline": "Australian dollar slides as US Treasury yields breach 5% and Fed hike odds rise - VT Markets",
            "driver": "Dollar / yields",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "VT Markets"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Breaks $4,299 as Fed Stays Hawkish - FXEmpire",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "FXEmpire"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Why the US Fed Rate Hike Spells Bad News for Private Equity Exits - Morningstar",
            "driver": "Fed / rates",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "Morningstar"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Futures Drop as Bessent Says Iranian Aviation Restrictions Are Wo - Benzinga",
            "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
            "instrument": "MNQ",
            "source": "Benzinga"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Fed's Williams says it is reasonable to see another US rate hike this year - Reuters",
            "driver": "Fed / rates",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "Reuters"
          },
          {
            "headline": "New York Fed’s Williams says it's 'reasonable' to expect another rate hike by year-end",
            "driver": "Fed / rates",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "finnhub:CNBC"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Nasdaq Futures Plunge as Rising Bond Yields Deepen Chip Selloff, Trump-Xi Summit in Focus - Barchart.com",
            "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
            "instrument": "MNQ",
            "source": "Barchart.com"
          },
          {
            "headline": "US Fed again bets rate hikes can tame inflation without hurting job market - The Business Times",
            "driver": "Fed / rates",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "The Business Times"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "weekday": "Friday",
        "mnq": {
          "date": "2026-09-25",
          "weekday": "Friday",
          "close": 30889.25,
          "move_pct": 0.4,
          "range_pts": 320.5,
          "range_x_median": 0.8,
          "mattered": false
        },
        "mgc": {
          "date": "2026-09-25",
          "weekday": "Friday",
          "close": 4287.8,
          "move_pct": 0.53,
          "range_pts": 62.0,
          "range_x_median": 0.66,
          "mattered": false
        },
        "mattered": false,
        "stories": [
          {
            "headline": "Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Support Zone Holds Key to Next Leg - FXEmpire",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "FXEmpire"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Dollar Set for Weekly Gains as Treasury Yields Surge and Fed Bets Rise - globalbankingandfinance.com",
            "driver": "Dollar / yields",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "globalbankingandfinance.com"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles below $4,300 level with bears still in control - FXStreet",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "FXStreet"
          },
          {
            "headline": "THINK Ahead: US jobs report and eurozone inflation data - ING Think",
            "driver": "Inflation data",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "ING Think"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Jobs report, inflation data to test US rate path, economic strength - TradingView",
            "driver": "Inflation data",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "TradingView"
          },
          {
            "headline": "EXCLUSIVE: Qatar Airways retires idle A330s and sends pilots to RwandAir as Iran war drags - Reuters",
            "driver": "Geopolitical risk",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "finnhub:Reuters"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Wall St Week Ahead-Jobs report, inflation data to test US rate path, economic strength - marketscreener.com",
            "driver": "Inflation data",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "marketscreener.com"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Wall St Week Ahead Jobs report, inflation data to test US rate path, economic strength - Reuters",
            "driver": "Inflation data",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "Reuters"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-28",
        "weekday": "Monday",
        "mnq": {
          "date": "2026-09-28",
          "weekday": "Monday",
          "close": 30566.25,
          "move_pct": -1.05,
          "range_pts": 564.0,
          "range_x_median": 1.41,
          "mattered": true
        },
        "mgc": {
          "date": "2026-09-28",
          "weekday": "Monday",
          "close": 4136.4,
          "move_pct": -3.53,
          "range_pts": 175.2,
          "range_x_median": 1.87,
          "mattered": true
        },
        "mattered": true,
        "stories": [
          {
            "headline": "Bitcoin, NASDAQ futures fall as Trump hints at more Iran strikes - TradingView",
            "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
            "instrument": "MNQ",
            "source": "TradingView"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures fall as Trump hints at possible new Iran strikes before midterms. - Pluang",
            "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
            "instrument": "MNQ",
            "source": "Pluang"
          },
          {
            "headline": "CAPITAL IDEAS: Are your bonds safe after the Fed hikes interest rates? - The Berkshire Edge",
            "driver": "Fed / rates",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "The Berkshire Edge"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Scott Bessent Says Fed Should Keep 'Open Mind' on Interest Rates - Benzinga",
            "driver": "Fed / rates",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "Benzinga"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures dip as Trump hints a... - Pluang",
            "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
            "instrument": "MNQ",
            "source": "Pluang"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Silver (XAG) Forecast: Treasury Yields and Dollar Cap Bounce at $65.09 - FXEmpire",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "FXEmpire"
          },
          {
            "headline": "US Market: Wall Street rally faces fresh test as jobs, inflation data loom - The Economic Times",
            "driver": "Inflation data",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "The Economic Times"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Gold News: High Treasury Yields Keep Spot Gold Buyers on the Defensive - FXEmpire",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "FXEmpire"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-29",
        "weekday": "Tuesday",
        "mnq": {
          "date": "2026-09-29",
          "weekday": "Tuesday",
          "close": 30613.25,
          "move_pct": 0.15,
          "range_pts": 353.2,
          "range_x_median": 0.88,
          "mattered": false
        },
        "mgc": {
          "date": "2026-09-29",
          "weekday": "Tuesday",
          "close": 4147.7,
          "move_pct": 0.27,
          "range_pts": 68.4,
          "range_x_median": 0.73,
          "mattered": false
        },
        "mattered": false,
        "stories": [
          {
            "headline": "Battered bond market braces for a new era of interest rates - Reuters",
            "driver": "Fed / rates",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "Reuters"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Gold prices hold steady near lows ahead of US inflation and interest rate data - صوت الإمارات",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "صوت الإمارات"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Australia raises interest rates to 15-year high - Al Jazeera",
            "driver": "Fed / rates",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "Al Jazeera"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief, Tehran says ready for talks - Reuters",
            "driver": "Geopolitical risk",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "finnhub:Reuters"
          },
          {
            "headline": "US Dollar Price Forecast: Rising Yields Lift DXY as EUR/USD and GBP/USD Diverge - FXEmpire",
            "driver": "Dollar / yields",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "FXEmpire"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Gold price prediction today: Gold under pressure, is it time to sell? Check September 29, 2026 outlook - The Times of India",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "The Times of India"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Nasdaq Futures Tread Water After Monday Rout: MU, NVTS, NVO, KOD, SMMT, ASTS Stocks In Focus - Stocktwits",
            "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
            "instrument": "MNQ",
            "source": "Stocktwits"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Nasdaq Futures Tread Water After Monday Rout: MU, NVTS, NVO, KOD, SMMT, ASTS Stocks In Focus - finance.yahoo.com",
            "driver": "Nasdaq / risk tone",
            "instrument": "MNQ",
            "source": "finance.yahoo.com"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-30",
        "weekday": "Wednesday",
        "mnq": {
          "date": "2026-09-30",
          "weekday": "Wednesday",
          "close": 30698.75,
          "move_pct": 0.28,
          "range_pts": 393.8,
          "range_x_median": 0.98,
          "mattered": false
        },
        "mgc": {
          "date": "2026-09-30",
          "weekday": "Wednesday",
          "close": 4155.6,
          "move_pct": 0.19,
          "range_pts": 66.8,
          "range_x_median": 0.71,
          "mattered": false
        },
        "mattered": false,
        "stories": [
          {
            "headline": "Gold Price Forecast: Support Breakdown Deepens Bearish Pressure - FXEmpire",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "FXEmpire"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Gold and Silver Price Forecast: High Yields Limit Rebound Ahead of PCE - FXEmpire",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "FXEmpire"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Asia stocks mixed ahead of U.S. PCE inflation; regional data in focus - Investing.com",
            "driver": "Inflation data",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "Investing.com"
          },
          {
            "headline": "DAX-FLASH: Clearly higher ahead of US inflation data, semiconductor stocks strong in Asia - marketscreener.com",
            "driver": "Megacap / AI earnings",
            "instrument": "MNQ",
            "source": "marketscreener.com"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Stock futures inch higher as traders weather latest rise in Treasury yields: Live updates - CNBC",
            "driver": "Dollar / yields",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "CNBC"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Dollar index advances as US 30-year Treasury yields reach multi-year highs - equiti.com",
            "driver": "Dollar / yields",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "equiti.com"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Stock futures rise as Treasury yields take a breather (SPX:) - Seeking Alpha",
            "driver": "Dollar / yields",
            "instrument": "BOTH",
            "source": "Seeking Alpha"
          },
          {
            "headline": "Gold Price Forecast: US August PCE Imminent, Will Gold Prices Rise or Fall Short-Term? - TradingKey",
            "driver": "Gold demand / safe haven",
            "instrument": "MGC",
            "source": "TradingKey"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "thresholds": {
      "move_pct": 1.0,
      "range_x_median": 1.25
    },
    "ledger_rows": 469,
    "medians": {
      "MNQ": 400.2,
      "MGC": 93.9
    },
    "basis": "Daily bars from Yahoo (NQ=F, MGC=F) against the paper's own 26-day range medians; stories from the paper's wire ledger. A session mattered when its range reached 1.25x the median or the close moved 1% or more."
  },
  "headlines": {
    "status": "ok",
    "date_et": "2026-10-01",
    "lead": {
      "kicker": "Pre-open · Thursday 01 October",
      "headline": "MODEL WEIGHS NASDAQ, FINDS IT ORDINARY",
      "deck": "Median forecast 381 points on MNQ against a 26-day median of 400. Gold reads narrow, 79 points expected. Size of the day, not a direction call and not a profit claim.",
      "tone": "range"
    },
    "subheads": [
      {
        "headline": "The Fed's long-term interest rate problem - Axios",
        "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxQMGlRLVl2empNVnFSQlEyZEl5QVNvaWFqZVFNbzI3VTN1UW5iZDZoSnlweWNqbzdEdmh2MnZqTW04NmszM19ueXRPbG9wb1pnWWFNWFRaNllCU082Tm13eHhFNUd3SURrWkZ2blFTalJXOUNkSk9QemNFQnozZnpFd2dSbnVlbGl6?oc=5",
        "tag": "BOTH",
        "driver": "Fed / rates",
        "source": "Axios"
      },
      {
        "headline": "Persistently Higher Treasury Yields Could Add Trillions to the Debt Over 10 Years - Cato Institute",
        "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxObTdWXzNZSnFZckxLYy10cUx4NWxRTFZ2MUIzMW92SkI3dGxDXzJ1QmlnUnRPNnpPRVdkNzRwNkZHZW4yOFF3MkVBOV9aczdzdU9kenVrUFREZ3BCUVRmWWlWMU0tSHVRcVNmd21yNXlQeHJmMzI0RlVHdWUwQnRJSDVjM0ViMTlrZU45N0JjcFYwTEdBeERXeVhGR1Y3aHVaVkE?oc=5",
        "tag": "BOTH",
        "driver": "Dollar / yields",
        "source": "Cato Institute"
      },
      {
        "headline": "US rate hike bets fade as revised inflation data points to October pause - Nikkei Asia",
        "url": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxQemRiOUR0aEZfNnRzU2tpX2lZMl9rMU9XX0JyVk5kRnI3ckg1RDNBd1dkZWFnY19ZRWRmTE1kY0psNk9VcEJoNktpejQ5cUVsX3diaFNiNHhkSDVmMEFpMTJSVGx0Z1JUSGRkd1djVnZQQW1mZWQ3R0x5alFZeXZEMFlrNVFhalNzaFZjdUR4SEtsblVEazJLOTRYUXUtYV90ejZ6enBDVUxoN3ZoWWdlMGE5UQ?oc=5",
        "tag": "BOTH",
        "driver": "Fed / rates",
        "source": "Nikkei Asia"
      }
    ],
    "ear": "Size of the day, not the side of the day.",
    "weather": "Fair to middling, with a chance of either. Pack for both.",
    "correction": "The desk wishes to clarify that a 'narrow' day is not a promise, merely a well-documented lean.",
    "notice": "Next closure: Thanksgiving, Thursday 26 November (56 days).",
    "desk_line": "Live book: Drift VWAP Pullback · Tokyo Drift · one contract each."
  },
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    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
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    "target_state_no": "Selvkalibrerende forskningsorganisme",
    "subtitle": "Opus as disposable cognition, re-instantiated per cron tick or session",
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      {
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    "judge_score_ci": {
      "status": "sccs_unavailable",
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      "source_jsonl": "data/sccs/judge_calibration.jsonl"
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}